Here’s how Trump’s 2nd term could impact Pennsylvanians
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President-elect Donald Trump made many promises on the campaign trail.
He said he would eliminate taxes on tips and overtime pay, deport masses of undocumented immigrants and solve the conflict in the Middle East.
His supporters have celebrated his victory Tuesday, hoping a second Trump administration will mean a better economy, a more secure border and a stronger energy industry.
Others, however, fear Trump’s triumph will translate to fewer rights for the LGBTQ+ community, higher costs at the grocery store and widespread anti-immigrant hatred.
Experts told TribLive it’s hard to predict exactly what Trump will do once in office.
“There’s a lot of things that are discussed in the campaign,” Berwood Yost, who oversees polling at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, said after the election. “Not all of them happen.”
A conservative supermajority on the U.S. Supreme Court and a Republican-controlled U.S. Senate will help Trump push through policies he chooses to prioritize, experts said.
But control of the U.S. House of Representatives is still up for grabs — and if Democrats overpower Republicans there, they could put a key check on Trump’s powers.
“You can come in fiercely, but the implementation is where all of the finesse is going to be,” said Kristen Coopie, director of pre-law at Duquesne University and a professor who has taught various political courses.
Here’s a look at how the election’s red wave could impact Pennsylvanians in key areas:
Abortion
When the Supreme Court in 2022 overturned Roe vs. Wade, the decision that protected a constitutional right to abortion, rules about the legality of abortions fell to the states.
With Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro at the helm in Pennsylvania, experts said it’s unlikely women here will see any changes to abortion access.
“For Pennsylvania, the election results may not have major, direct impacts on reproductive policy in the state,” said Chris Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College in Allentown.
Abortions are legal in Pennsylvania during the first 24 weeks of pregnancy. But with Republicans poised to take control of the White House and potentially both houses of Congress, it’s possible there could be new federal limitations that would make it harder to access certain abortion medications, Coopie said.
Trump could appoint a Food and Drug Administration leader who would put more stringent rules on abortion medications, making it harder for women to access them, even in states where abortions are permitted.
“We know that the vast majority of Pennsylvanians want abortion to remain legal, and we will fight for it to be accessible for all,” Planned Parenthood PA Advocates Executive Director Signe Espinoza said in a statement.
While it seems unlikely there will be any abortion ban in Pennsylvania, it likely will be a key issue in the 2026 governor’s race, said Alison Dagnes, a political science professor at Shippensburg University.
Shapiro, she said, is a bulwark against abortion bans in Pennsylvania. But there would be a real chance of abortion bans or harsh restrictions if the commonwealth were to elect a Republican governor and a Republican-controlled Legislature, she said.
“It is going to be absolutely the No. 1 issue (in 2026),” Dagnes said.
Economy
On the campaign trail, Trump vowed to reduce inflation, implement new tariffs and cut taxes on tips and overtime pay.
Westmoreland County Republican Committee Chairman Bill Bretz said he is optimistic about the economy under Trump.
He said Trump’s support of the natural gas industry could create a job boom, and his plan to eliminate taxes on overtime pay could encourage workers to put in extra hours, increasing productivity for their employers.
“I think the immediate ramification for no tax on tips and no tax on overtime is you’re going to see people who are working in hospitality or in the gig economy are going to boost their bottom line,” Bretz said. “If people have more take-home pay, it’s going to improve their lifestyle, and it’s going to put more money back into the economy.”
Borick, the Muhlenberg professor, said cutting taxes on tips and overtime would give more buying power to low- and middle-income households.
“That certainly would be beneficial to individuals in those low- to mid-income categories where often things like tips and overtime are most prominent,” he said. “At the same time, when you make policies like that and put more money into the economy and consumption, does it have an impact on inflation? That’s often the case.”
The tax reductions also would mean less money to fund the federal government, Shippensburg’s Dagnes said. Trump hasn’t explained yet how he plans to make up for that lost revenue.
Trump’s tariff plan could translate to higher consumer costs, said Stacy Rosenberg, an associate professor at Carnegie Mellon University’s Heinz College for the School of Public Policy & Management.
The president-elect has pledged to place tariffs on goods imported into the U.S. from other countries, especially China. His Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, warned that a 20% universal tariff would cost a typical family nearly $4,000 per year, according to the Associated Press.
“Our country largely depends on imports for the products that U.S. citizens are purchasing,” Rosenberg said. “A tariff is a cost that will be passed on to the consumer. If Trump goes ahead with what he has proposed and does put tariffs on foreign imports, then expect the cost of goods to rise.”
If Trump’s tariffs succeed in their goal of encouraging more domestic manufacturing, Duquesne’s Coopie said, it will take time for new manufacturing plants to come online — and still cost more than manufacturing overseas.
“It’s not something you can flip a switch on,” she said.
Education
Trump has suggested dismantling the federal Department of Education, which was created by former President Jimmy Carter in 1979.
Bretz, the Westmoreland County Republican leader, said such a move could allow more local control over what happens in the classroom.
But it’s hard to say exactly what gutting the Department of Education would do, Coopie said, because Trump hasn’t outlined specific plans for which agencies would take over its responsibilities.
Such a move would require congressional approval.
Most school funding comes from the state and local levels, said Yost of Franklin & Marshall. Many guidelines on public education and curriculum already originate at the state and local levels.
“The federal Department of Education does a lot of grant-making, and it sets certain rules to receive federal funds,” Yost said. “There probably would be fewer dollars available for some districts, fewer federal guidelines about educational policies. But I’m not sure if that would make a huge difference.”
Fracking
Trump has promised to unleash Pennsylvania’s energy economy, essentially promising that the fracking industry will grow.
Andre Beliveau, senior manager for energy policy at the pro-fracking Commonwealth Foundation, said he expects Trump to make good on that promise.
Beliveau said Trump likely will pursue a regulatory environment that will make it easier to drill and build pipelines to transfer natural gas.
Trump also has vowed to lift a temporary freeze aimed at pending applications to export liquid natural gas to countries that lack a free trade agreement with the U.S. The freeze began in January, and the Biden administration has said it expected the pause to end in March 2025.
Trump has said he will end it on the first day of his administration in late January. He will be sworn in Jan. 20.
Beliveau said this will free up more gas to be shipped internationally.
“Lifting of the LNG pause will allow the natural gas market to expand. Pennsylvania sits as the second largest natural gas producer of any state,” he said. “We can produce it. (The issue) is just getting the product to market.”
How much more the fracking industry can grow is the question.
Pennsylvania has produced record levels of natural gas during the past three years of the Biden-Harris administration. After hitting its high of 7.6 trillion cubic feet of gas in 2021, the state hovered above 7.5 trillion cubic feet over the next two years. This year is on pace to reach a similar output, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration Data.
Beliveau said he believes the state can produce more.
“It is certainly possible to go higher. If the infrastructure is in place, that can boost production,” he said. “Given the right regulatory environment, I don’t see a reason that we couldn’t expand on the numbers.”
Building new infrastructure like pipelines and reducing regulations will require local, state and federal approval, said David Masur, executive director at environmental group PennEnvironment.
Pipelines in Pennsylvania usually run up against opposition, especially in the southeastern part of the state, Masur said.
Also, depending on which party has control of the U.S. House, there could be difficulties in passing regulatory changes surrounding fracking, he said.
Masur is skeptical about how much more natural gas Pennsylvania can produce. Under Trump’s term from 2017-20, natural gas production in Pennsylvania increased rapidly but never reached the levels seen during President Joe Biden’s tenure.
Natural gas production in Pennsylvania reached 5.4 trillion cubic feet in 2017 and jumped to 7.1 trillion cubic feet in 2020, Trump’s last year in office. Pandemic closures in 2020 did not affect the fracking industry’s output.
“They will try to use what levers they have to stimulate more gas, but it wasn’t like in the four years under Trump, they created some tectonic shift in the market,” Masur said.
But Beliveau is more confident, especially given Trump’s convincing victory and his strong focus on energy during his campaign.
“He has a pretty clear mandate on some of these energy issues,” Beliveau said.
Health care
With congressional approval, Trump might look to repeal or largely modify the Obama-era Affordable Care Act.
Republicans have discussed imposing work requirements for Medicaid, cutting money for safety net insurance and slashing federal subsidies for people who receive health insurance through the Affordable Care Act, Coopie said.
“That would definitely affect Pennsylvanians who rely on the Affordable Care Act, who are on Medicaid or who look to the government to provide safe, affordable and meaningful health care for them,” she said.
The Biden-Harris administration worked to lower prescription drug costs, and those benefits likely would remain because the deals already have been made, she said.
Immigration
Trump’s top policy priority will likely be addressing immigration and securing the southern border, Coopie said.
Trump has promised to crack down on illegal immigration and launch a mass deportation of undocumented immigrants with particular focus on those who have committed crimes.
Monica Ruiz, of immigrant-service group Casa San Jose in Pittsburgh, said Trump’s victory has put the immigrant community on edge. She said people are anxious that every undocumented immigrant will be deported, not just those who have committed crimes.
“There are fears that Trump will go after any undocumented immigrant,” Ruiz said. “There are even fears that naturalized citizens will be gone.”
Ruiz, born in Ohio, said the issue hits close to home as her husband is a naturalized U.S. citizen born in Mexico.
She said she believes immigration raids will be worse under a second Trump administration than under his first term.
“That was just the beginning,” she said. “Now that he has more support, it is going to be way worse.”
Ruiz said large-scale deportations could impact Pittsburgh’s economy.
She said the region has a workforce shortage, particularly in the health care industry, and undocumented immigrants with work permits, like so-called Dreamers, have helped fill many jobs as nurses and health care aides.
Pennsylvania is home to about 3,800 Dreamers, who were brought to the U.S. as children. They have work authorization through the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program created in 2012 under President Barack Obama.
“You can’t vote for a better economy and not realize that immigrants play a part,” Ruiz said.
Karim Alshurafa, a Palestinian-American living in Pittsburgh, said many in the Muslim community worry that a second Trump term will mean another ban on Muslim immigrants, much like the one the president-elect implemented during his first term.
“During his last term, he applied a Muslim ban, and he showed very Islamophobic rhetoric,” Alshurafa said. “That is extremely concerning. That creates hate towards Muslims in this country.”
Coopie said Trump might attempt to end birthright citizenship for people born in the United States to illegal immigrants, though such a measure likely would face legal challenges.
Rosenberg said immigrants in the United States, legally here or not, could be concerned that anti-immigrant messaging peddled by Trump and his supporters — including a false claim that immigrants were eating pets in Ohio — might fuel hatred.
“They could fear that their ability to remain in the U.S. is threatened — and they could feel physically threatened if they are in a community that has accepted the rhetoric that they are dangerous,” she said.
Bretz, however, pushed back on the notion that a Trump presidency could mean harm for legal immigrants.
“I think we are a nation, and particularly a region, of immigrants,” he said. “There is intolerance for people who are breaking the law, but there’s certainly a tolerance for people who are here legally.”
LGBTQ community
Dena Stanley, a transgender woman who founded TransYOUniting and co-founded the Pittsburgh Pride Group, said calls at TransYOUniting have increased by about 70% to 80% since Trump’s win.
People are wondering whether they’ll be able to get transitioning medications, change their names or update the gender listed on their IDs, she said.
“For my community, it was a sense of defeat,” Stanley said. “A lot of folks don’t even want to live anymore.”
She said she fears Trump may try to roll back anti-discrimination policies that prohibit excluding LGBTQ people from housing, health care, education and job opportunities.
Coopie said Trump could try to pass such measures, but any policy that’s viewed as taking away rights from specific groups would likely face steep legal challenges.
Stanley said there also could be major health care implications for transgender people across the nation.
She worries a Republican-controlled government could yank federal funding for transgender health care, mental health resources for members of the LGBTQ community or HIV research.
Many in the local transgender community, Stanley said, are worried Trump could crack down on hormone treatments or make it harder to get other transitioning medications and procedures.
Stanley said she also fears Trump and other Republican leaders may stop transgender kids from participating in sports and revoke funding for LGBTQ-related programming in public schools.
“There’s a chance that marriage equality could be threatened,” Rosenberg said, pointing out the Supreme Court already has tossed out precedent around abortion.
She said she fears Trump may try to roll back anti-discrimination policies that prohibit excluding LGBTQ people from housing, health care, education and job opportunities.
Coopie said Trump could try to pass such measures, but any policy that’s viewed as taking away rights from specific groups would likely face steep legal challenges.
Stanley said there also could be major health care implications for transgender people across the nation.
She worries a Republican-controlled government could yank federal funding for transgender health care, mental health resources for members of the LGBTQ community or HIV research.
Many in the local transgender community, Stanley said, are worried Trump could crack down on hormone treatments or make it harder to get other transitioning medications and procedures.
Stanley said she also fears Trump and other Republican leaders may stop transgender kids from participating in sports and revoke funding for LGBTQ-related programming in public schools.
“There’s a chance that marriage equality could be threatened,” Rosenberg said, pointing out the Supreme Court already has tossed out precedent around abortion.
Middle East
Laura Cherner, director of community relations for the Jewish Federation of Greater Pittsburgh, said the local Jewish community has been divided on whether a Harris or Trump presidency would’ve been better for Israel in its ongoing war with Hamas.
Some people, she said, felt Harris had the best chance of freeing the hostages who have been held since the Oct. 7, 2023, surprise attack on Israel by Hamas.
Many also supported the Biden-Harris administration’s efforts to launch a White House plan to address antisemitism.
But Trump supporters looked to his role in establishing the Abraham Accords, which normalized diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab nations, and moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv, Cherner said.
Alshurafa, who has family living in the Palestinian territories, said many Palestinian-Americans and Palestinian supporters were critical of Harris’ stance on the Middle East conflict. But many felt Trump wouldn’t be any better.
“We’re basically choosing from bad or worse at this point,” he said. “We are deeply concerned that Israel is just using the U.S. for their own interests in the Middle East.”
Yost said Trump is “clearly a strong supporter of Israel,” but Trump didn’t outline clear plans for how he would deal with the conflict during his campaign.
In the midst of the divisive Middle Eastern war and a new president taking power, Cherner and Alshurafa said there are also concerns about a potential rise in antisemitism and Islamophobia.
“I think that any time there is a political change or civil unrest or a divisive environment, that inevitably causes an anxiety about an increase in antisemitism,” Cherner said.
She said she’s hopeful that combating antisemitism can remain a bipartisan priority.