At 16%, Westmoreland County tops local population loss estimates

With deaths outpacing births in Southwestern Pennsylvania, counties will continue to lose people through 2050, with Westmoreland’s 16% projected drop the second largest of any county in the Keystone State, according to a new report on population projections.

“This is not surprising at all. We’ve been losing population for a while,” said Frank Gamrat, executive director of the Allegheny Institute for Public Policy, a Castle Shannon-based thinktank.

Westmoreland is predicted to drop from about 354,300 people in 2020 to 299,500 in 2050, a loss of close to 55,000 individuals, according to the report from the nonprofit Center for Rural Pennsylvania, a state legislative agency based in Harrisburg, and the Pennsylvania State Data Center in Harrisburg,

That is the steepest projected drop of any county in the state, with the exception of the 24% projected population loss in Pike County, in the upper Delaware River Valley. Only Armstrong County’s projected 15.6% drop is close to Westmoreland’s predicted decline among Western Pennsylvania counties.

Allegheny County, by contrast, is seen as losing only 1.8% of its population by 2050, with Butler expected to drop by 7.5%. The decline in Fayette is projected at 4.9% and Washington is predicted to lose 10% of its population by 2050.

With an older population in Southwestern Pennsylvania, the projected levels of natural population decline — more deaths than births — “are essentially baked into the near term projections,” said Chris Briem, a regional economist with the University of Pittsburgh’s Center for Social and Urban Research.

“I don’t see the trends changing,” said Jim Futrell, vice president for market research for Pittsburgh-based Allegheny Conference on Community Development.

And some of you folks think I'm dismal. New state population forecasts have all counties in SWPA (well, except for Indiana County) declining though 2050https://t.co/CIic2q2qTR pic.twitter.com/VpQlHTp2dj

— ???????????????????? ???????????????????? (@chrisbriem) October 6, 2023

Stemming the tide

The projected population drop in the report portends continuing labor force problems, Gamrat said, as the Pittsburgh region has yet to see as many people working or looking for jobs as there had been before the pandemic. The seven-county Pittsburgh region’s labor force was 1.177 million in August, compared to 1.225 million in August 2019, a loss of about 48,000.

“When you get more job opportunities and more welcoming to business, you will get the population,” Gamrat said.

Westmoreland County Commissioner Sean Kertes said the county has allocated $1 million to the Economic Growth Connection of Westmoreland for workforce development among youth to pursue trades and remain in the county.

To make Westmoreland County a more attractive place to live and work, the county has invested in expanding broadband and water and sewage services, as well as removing blighted properties. Those initiatives are designed to try to make the county an environment where people want to work and live, Kertes said.

The Westmoreland County Chamber of Commerce is particularly concerned “about the impact of this decline on our local business community,” said Dan DeBone, president of the chamber.

While the county’s comprehensive plan represents a significant step in the right direction, “it is crucial that we continue to take vast proactive approaches to make our region more attractive for residents, workers and visitors,” DeBone said.

The study gives the impression “Westmoreland County is singular in the issues that we face. This isn’t even just a regional issue, it is one that faces the nation right now,” said Jim Smith, president of the Economic Growth Connection of Westmoreland, a Greensburg-based organization.

While not disputing that there are challenges for Westmoreland County, “I believe it’s the scale of the challenges that are in question,” Smith said.

One way to stem the population decline would be to retain at least a small percentage of the thousands of students who graduate each year from Pittsburgh area colleges and universities.

“That’s a short-term strategy to change this” loss of population, Futrell said.

Any population growth would have to come from increased levels of net migration, or more people moving into the region than moving out, Briem said.

But, Futrell said that migration of any significant level is an issue “that has to be solved on the national level.”

Population perspectives

In contrast to surrounding counties, Indiana County is expected to grow in population by 10% by 2050, from 83.140 to 92,210. The projected growth is boosted by the student housing at Indiana University of Pennsylvania as well as other “group quarters,” such as the Indiana County Jail, said Jennifer Schultz, director of the Pennsylvania State Data Center.

Basing the population numbers on the birth rates, death rates and migration patterns, is the standard methodology for such population projections, Schultz said.

Futrell offered a perspective on 30-year population projections.

The same survey in 2010 from the Pennsylvania State Data Center projected Westmoreland’s population as 344,230 in 2040, compared to the report with the 2020 baseline data showing the county’s population falling to 318,700 in 2040.

Futrell is more comfortable with five-year population projections. As an example, Futrell said that similar projections for the Pittsburgh region in 1970 would not have foreseen the collapse of the steel industry and exodus of thousands people. Had that not happened, Futrell said, “we might have 3 million people” in the Pittsburgh area.

“You don’t know what will happen,” Futrell noted.

Although a population decline has its own set of problems, Briem offers a different view.

“Population growth is not a requirement to build strong and successful communities, and it is possible to build communities with a high quality of life with moderate growth or even some decline.”