Benjamin V. Allison: How the 2-party system could self-destruct and save American democracy
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Legally, Donald Trump can run for reelection in 2024. That’s bad. But it could break up the two-party system. That’s good.
Since the election, talk of a Republican split has waxed and waned, with rumors that Trump or moderate Republicans might break from the GOP to create a new party. Within the party, the recent brouhaha regarding Rep. Liz Cheney, the creation of a new anti-Trump political coalition and Trump’s financial hardball reveal that the potential for such a schism is alive and well.
Additionally, the creation of the Republican Accountability Project and publication of “A Call for American Renewal” indicate anti-Trump Republicans’ and independents’ willingness to form a third party.
A GOP split would likely trigger a similar breakup in the Democratic Party, destroying the two-party system.
The Democrats’ “big-tent politics” have been under fire for years, as the gap between leftists and establishment liberal Democrats widens.
The recent conflict between Israel and Hamas was just the latest flashpoint in this intraparty power struggle. Moreover, the Black Lives Matter organization has experienced ruptures over whether to continue collaborating with the Democratic Party, while Democratic Socialists of America ponder breaking with the DNC over ideology.
In 2016, some constituents who supported Bernie Sanders in the primaries voted for Trump in the general election. To a lesser degree, this pattern was seemingly also present in 2020. Clearly, neither party is fully serving their interests.
Hypothetically, with the Republican Party in tatters after a Trump-inspired split, progressives who usually work with liberals could reasonably break with the Democratic Party, because the threat of a monolithic GOP would become moot.
Alternatively, a split in the Democratic Party could trigger a similar rupture in the GOP, as those alienated by Trumpism, who previously felt compelled to vote against Democrats rather than for Republicans, would no longer have to fear an omnipotent Democratic majority in Congress and the White House.
Such splits could generate a field of small but viable parties. These smaller parties would better represent the interests of the general population, whose political views are rarely as simple as blue or red.
But even if this happened, it would not necessarily mean the election of a third-party presidential candidate in 2024.—though we have seen somewhat competitive third-party candidates in 1860, 1912 and 1992 Instead, most of the initial breakdown in the bipartisan system would come through congressional elections, which are more prone to third-party wins. Eventually, though, a third-party presidential candidate could win the White House.
The emergence of a truly multiparty system could diffuse the negative bipartisanship that rankles our politics, allowing for greater compromise and coalition-building.
That said, on issues like minimum wage, climate change, and reproductive rights, traditional political alignments would likely remain.
Couldn’t these coalitions revert into two major parties? Of course — most scholars assume that would happen.
That assumption has not gone unchallenged, however, and it is certainly possible for the United States to break out of this pattern. Public support for a third party is at an all-time high, according to a recent Gallup poll. Indeed, 63% of Republicans surveyed believe a third party is needed, though most prefer a shift to the right, rather than toward the center, while Democrats are split three ways over their party (move left, stay put, move to the center).
This data suggests many Americans want a multiparty system. The primary obstacle to this is political convenience. It behooves members of both parties to refrain from rocking the boat. But rock the boat they must.
Will enough members leave one party to cause a split, prompting a fissure in the other? Perhaps not. But there is certainly a possibility, and the risks are well worth the potential reward of renewing our democracy.
Benjamin V. Allison, a graduate of Grove City College, is a Ph.D. student in history at the University of Texas at Austin.