Paul Kengor: Fetterman on Trump’s ceiling

I don’t often agree with John Fetterman, Pennsylvania’s junior Democratic senator, but I found myself nodding vigorously at his recent assessment of Donald Trump’s prospects in Pennsylvania for November 2024.

In a respectful, non-snarky, sober analysis, Fetterman responded to a question from The New York Times about whether he believes the indictments against Trump “will hurt him politically” in Pennsylvania: “It doesn’t matter. I’m a senator, and I’m not sure how many times he’s been indicted. He’s been impeached twice. Has that changed anything? You’re still seeing Trump signs everywhere in Pennsylvania. You have to respect his strength in all of that.”

You do indeed. Fetterman lives in Pennsylvania and sees the signs. Just as he saw them in 2020, when there were far more. The number, in fact, was incredible. I never saw anything like it. And yet, Trump could not carry the Keystone state against Biden.

Still, adds Fetterman, Trump remains competitive: “Trump would be very competitive in Pennsylvania. But Trump has to perform above his ceiling. I think there’s a hard ceiling in Pennsylvania he can’t get past.”

Precisely, Senator Fetterman.

To be competitive is one thing, but to win is something else entirely. And the problem is indeed Donald Trump’s ceiling. As I’ve written here repeatedly, he cannot get 50% of the vote, period. The man is too hated.

Trump supporters are excited about polls showing him leading or barely trailing Biden. But look closer. They once again expose Trump’s limit — that ceiling.

The current RealClearPolitics composite average shows Biden leading Trump 45.0% to 44.1%. That’s a tight race, less than 1%. Trump supporters enthuse about the race being well within “the margin of error.” Nonsense. Trump’s overwhelming obstacle remains that he is more disliked than his disliked opponent.

Like with his challenge of Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, Trump in 2024 faces an unpopular Democrat, but his perennial problem is that he will always remain more unpopular than even these unpopular Democrats.

Trump advocates insist that he has been unfairly maligned and viciously persecuted and harassed more than any politician in American history. They want him to run again simply for the chance to stick it to the liberals and avenge their man. Here’s their chance to enrage Democrats by electing him president.

But what Trump needs is not 10 million Americans who feel that way but 70 million. Actually, maybe 80 million. From November 2016 to November 2020, Trump boomed his overall vote total from 63 million to 74 million, a massive increase for an incumbent, and yet still lost by seven million, as Biden somehow got 81 million votes (mainly because he wasn’t Trump).

Look at the percentages: In 2016, Trump got 46.1% of the vote. In 2020, he got 46.8%. Right now, he’s polling at 44.1%. That is not a winner, folks. Not even against Biden.

Now, that said, Trump could win with that 46% ceiling if a third-party candidate entered the race and pulled votes from Biden. Perhaps someone like RFK Jr. Will that happen? We shall see. But that isn’t something that Republicans should count on.

My suggestion to Republicans: This isn’t rocket-science. Nominate a candidate who can get 50% of the vote. That means someone other than Donald Trump.