Paul Kengor: How much does Putin want?

“The collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.”

So declared Russian President Vladimir Putin in April 2005 in his annual state of the nation address to the Russian parliament, broadcast live on Russian television.

That bombshell was dropped without any elaboration. “Putin deplores collapse of the USSR,” reported the BBC.

Those of us who study Russia and the Cold War scratched our heads. What to make of that alarming declaration, especially given that Putin, in April 2005, was not yet the Putin we now know, nor did he seem that bad of a guy (yet)? He had been appointed by Boris Yeltsin as prime minister, overwhelmingly approved by the Duma and easily elected twice by the Russian people.

Every fall semester since, students in my Comparative Politics course have read that 2005 speech. We cover it as we do a deep dive on modern Russia.

Winston Churchill famously said that Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. That comment from Vladimir Putin was an enigma. What did he mean? Perhaps more important, what was he planning to do? We’re getting some of the contours of that answer right now.

I’ve been asked about Putin’s statement many times, in class, in speeches, in media interviews. I’ve always said that we should not interpret it as a sign that Putin is seeking to reconstitute the old USSR. The Soviet Union consisted of Russia and 15 “republics,” all of which by December 1991 had declared independence — including Ukraine, a territorially huge nation with a population of 43 million. In no way does Putin want to try to pull together the whole bloody behemoth that was the USSR. He could give a rip about Tajikistan.

But Putin does care very much, obviously, about Ukraine. Exactly how much? We knew he wanted the Crimea, and frankly would take more than that if he could. But how much of a chunk did this Russian nationalist-authoritarian want to bite off?

That was something that few knew, until this past week. We now have our answer. Vladimir Putin wants it all. He wants to gobble it up. So much so that he has resorted to a curious combination of Hitlerian and KGB tactics.

His justifications for invading Ukraine have been Hitler-like, as he pushes Big Lies about ethnic Russians being persecuted in this or that region. Amazingly, he claims they’re being targeted for “genocide” by the Ukrainian government. This is what the Fuhrer charged against countries such as Czechoslovakia and Poland.

As for KGB tactics, this Russian strongman has dusted off his old KGB dezinformatsiya (i.e., disinformation) manual. Among his most shocking claims is that he’s seeking a “de-Nazification of Ukraine.” His surreal assertion has angered and bewildered observers worldwide. How did Putin come up with that whopper?

The reality is that the Kremlin after World War II labeled pretty much every enemy a “Nazi sympathizer.” It’s standard operating procedure.

So, now we know. How much does Putin want? He wants as much of Ukraine as he can get — and as much as the people of Ukraine and the world are willing to permit.