Paul Kengor: Of course, Nikki Haley should stay in the race

When Donald Trump defeated Nikki Haley in New Hampshire about a month ago, I wrote a piece titled, “We’ve Got a Ballgame.” Though Trump won New Hampshire, Haley did much better than projected. The numbers told the story: The morning of the vote, the final composite polling projection by RealClearPolitics predicted Trump winning by 20%. But, by nightfall, Haley had increased her number substantially, coming within 10%. She landed a solid punch.

In response to my article, the strange segment of fanatical Trump supporters — the ones I refer to as “Trumpists” — berated me. It was weird. I was simply calling balls and strikes as I saw them. I said in the article, “I’m not playing favorites.” I wasn’t taking a stand for or against Trump or Haley. And yet Trumpists unloaded on me, as if merely questioning the magnificence of their hero’s triumph was unacceptable.

As for Haley, she declared after New Hampshire, “This race is far from over. There are dozens of states left to go.”

I agreed. And I noted in conclusion that voters should keep a close eye on South Carolina. In mid-January, Trump was projected to deliver a knockout punch to Haley on her home turf. RCP had him leading her by 30 points (52%-22%). A Feb. 13 Suffolk University poll had Trump beating her in South Carolina 63%-35%.

So what happened? Well, Trump took South Carolina, though again by a smaller margin than predicted. Haley got close to 40%. In turn, she noted 40% is hardly insignificant. It represents a sizable number of Republicans who want a nominee other than Donald Trump. She says this often, and, when she does, Trumpists trash her, spray ing insults at her.

At Breitbart.com, a very pro-Trump site, the reporter/blogger who was covering the South Carolina vote continuously made fun of Haley: “Haley has dropped below 40% down to 39.8%,” wrote the reporter at one point, as if Haley was a pathetic creature. “This is a total embarrassment. She has no pathway forward.”

Well, the reporter can guffaw all he wants, but the fact is Haley is doing decently well. Understand that, in many states, the second-place finisher gets delegates. They add up.

But more important, the No. 2 is just that. And there’s always good reason for the No. 2 to not drop out. That person remains the chief party alternative should something happen to No. 1. Throughout the history of presidential politics, things have happened to the frontrunner. And of course, in 2024, no front-runner has ever faced obstacles like Donald Trump. Trump could, possibly, find himself in a legal situation that prevents him from the nomination.

If ever there was a year in the history of presidential politics when the No. 2 should stay in the race, this year is obviously it.

And yet Trumpists act like Haley — whom Trump dubs “Bird Brain” — is out of her mind for staying in. Quite the contrary. She’s behaving very rationally. They’re the ones thinking emotionally. Besides, what do they care if she stays in and their boy beats her badly?

Of course, this is not to say that Trump is unlikely to defeat Haley. The RCP betting averages give him an 86% likelihood of winning the GOP nomination. And that’s probably right. Nonetheless, in politics, anything can happen. That’s why Nikki Haley, the number 2, should stay in the race all the way to the Republican convention in Milwaukee. She would be foolish not to.