Paul Kengor: Putin’s ominous message for 2024

Vladimir Putin this week gave his customary year-end speech. What he said should give us pause.

Interestingly, the speech was considerably shorter than usual; in fact, it was quite brief, running just under four minutes. Also quite curious, some media sources noted that Putin “made little mention” of Ukraine, at least by name. But he didn’t need to. It was clear what he was talking about. Very clear.

Putin vowed that Russia would “never back down.” “We have repeatedly proven that we can solve the most difficult problems and will never back down because there is no force that can separate us,” insisted Putin.

In some translations (including the report by Reuters), Putin stated not that his country “will never back down” but “will never retreat.” The latter translation seems even more pointed. I’ve been saying for over a year that Putin is not going to retreat from Ukraine, no matter how badly he’s losing on the ground.

Putin pledged that Russians “are united … in toil and in battle.”

“What united us and unites us is the fate of the Fatherland, a deep understanding of the highest significance of the historical stage through which Russia is passing.”

And what is that historical stage? Make no bones about it. Putin sees himself as a grandiose figure in Russian history. He has long wanted to unite the “Fatherland.” Taking Ukraine is critical to that. In his eyes, this historical stage in that glorious mission cannot fail.

For that, Putin praises his troops. He paused to commend them, saying of his front-line soldiers: “To everyone who is at a combat post, at the forefront of the fight for truth and justice: You are our heroes, our hearts are with you. We are proud of you, we admire your courage.”

Putin has put those boys through hell since his invasion of Ukraine. It’s telling that when Putin gave this annual speech last year, he was flanked by soldiers. This year, the only visual accompanying him was a backdrop of the Kremlin.

Those soldiers’ absence behind Putin this time is appropriate, given how many have perished. The Wall Street Journal, citing a U.S. intelligence estimate shared with Congress, recently reported that the Ukraine war “has devastated Russia’s preinvasion military machine,” with nearly 90% of its prewar army lost to death or injury, and thousands of battle tanks (nearly two-thirds) destroyed. The figures are shocking: the report claims that 315,000 Russian personnel have been killed or wounded since the February 2022 invasion.

Stunning as those numbers are, I’m not surprised. I’ve written here repeatedly, from the start of Russia’s Ukraine invasion, that Russians always get clobbered in battle, and especially this time, facing a committed foe backed by massive supplies of Western/U.S. military aid.

So, how can Putin remain so defiant, so dedicated to a 2024 goal of never backing down, of not retreating? Well, that’s a thought that should frighten us all.

I’ve said repeatedly that the one option in Ukraine that Vladimir Putin has yet to try is a nuclear option. I’ve feared all along that when this man’s back is against the wall, with a decimated military no longer at his disposal, he could very well push that button.

Here’s hoping and praying that we don’t see that from Vladimir Putin in 2024.