Paul Kengor: The Middle East’s element of surprise

On June 5, 1967, at 7:45 a.m. Jerusalem time, the young nation of Israel sent nearly its entire Air Force on a top-­secret bombing run. In total, that was almost 200 fighter aircraft. Only about a dozen planes were left behind. In mere hours (if that), the Israelis wiped out the entire Egyptian Air Force, which literally never got off the ground.

Israel had achieved the element of surprise via this massive preemptive strike. Israeli officials had been fearing an Arab all-out assault on their nation, as had happened immediately upon the start of the modern nation-state of Israel at midnight May 14, 1948. This time, in June 1967, Israel wasn’t waiting to see if the Arabs would attack first.

The surprise preemptive attack allowed Israel to crush its then-archenemy, Egypt, before turning its guns toward the West Bank, where Jewish soldiers defeated Jordanian soldiers, and then, on June 9, marching north to the Golan Heights, where Israel tossed everything at Syrian forces.

By June 10, the Six Day War was over. In less than a week, Israel tripled its size, seizing the Sinai Peninsula, Gaza Strip, West Bank, Jerusalem, Golan Heights and more. The strategic element of surprise created a huge military victory.

Six years later, the tables were turned completely. On Oct. 6, 1973, the first day of Yom Kippur, the Jewish high holy day, Egypt launched a surprise attack on Israel. The Egyptian leader of 1967, Gamal Abdel Nasser, was dead and gone. His replacement was Anwar Sadat, who now became the toast of the Arab world with his surprise assault.

This battle lasted nearly three weeks. It dangerously pulled in the two superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union. President Richard Nixon went so far as to direct our nuclear forces to DEFCON 3. In June 1967, President Lyndon Johnson’s secretary of defense, Robert McNamara, had called the Six Day War a “very, very dangerous situation.” October 1973 was even more dangerous. Most people don’t realize that October 1973 — rather than the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 — was the closest America ever came to nuclear war.

If you haven’t already guessed where I’m going with this, well, fast forward to October 2023, the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War.

Early in the morning of Oct. 7, while Jews sleepily awakened for the Saturday Sabbath, readying for the joyous holiday of Simchat Torah, Hamas militants launched a shocking attack, the most intense they’ve ever leveled against Israel, the nation whose destruction Hamas calls for in its charter.

Once again, the element of surprise.

So far, a large number of Jews are dead, and a sizable number have been taken hostage. While most of the world greeted the news with horror, members of the Iranian parliament celebrated Hamas’ strike by chanting “Death to Israel!”

As I write, we’re learning more and more about Iranian involvement in Hamas’ deadly planning. Israeli Prime Minister Ben Netanyahu, who has a mutual hate relationship with the Iranian leadership, is deliberating with his military brass on precisely how to respond not only to Hamas in Gaza, but to the Iranians in Tehran. This ugly situation could escalate terribly.

Let us hope that no more big elements of surprise are imminent. Other than perhaps suddenly surprising signs of peace.