America will need more electricity to keep the lights on and our electronic devices running. The demand for electricity is predicted to increase by 18% by 2033 due largely to data centers needed for artificial intelligence and more electric vehicles.

One of the ways to meet that demand would be increased use of nuclear power, which currently supplies 20% of the nation’s electricity. Although the use of nuclear power has stagnated, two recent announcements have raised hopes of a nuclear revival.

Microsoft will pay Constellation Energy $1.6 billion to restart a nuclear reactor at Three Mile Island. The company hopes to have the reactor running by 2028., generating the electricity that artificial intelligence requires

Holtec International, owner of the Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan, plans to restart that reactor, which had been shut down since 2022. Holtec hopes to capitalize on the growing demand for electricity that is always available (unlike solar and wind power) and is also emissions-free, at a cost of $1.5 billion.

If both reactors are restarted, it will reverse a trend. In 2012, 104 reactors were generating electricity; currently 94 are doing so, while seven other reactors are scheduled to close in 2025.

The reasons for the decline are largely financial — natural gas plants in particular are less costly to construct and operate. To reverse the trend and combat climate change, the Biden administration and several states have offered the utilities subsidies to keep plants operating.

The key question is, will other reactors be restarted? Perhaps the rising demand for electricity will entice some utilities to restart or continue to operate older reactors. Unfortunately, some of the closed reactors are too far into decommissioning (removal of all nuclear fuel and equipment) to make restarting economically feasible. In addition, restarting a reactor is no simple matter. The plant’s equipment must be inspected and replaced if necessary, and then undergo regulatory scrutiny by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), which can take years.

Another issue is whether the Trump administration would be willing to subsidize utilities to restart reactors. More likely will be efforts to make the regulatory process less complex, reducing the time and costs involved.

One thing seems certain: Large nuclear plants like the 94 still operating will never be built again. They are just too expensive. In Georgia, two new reactors ending up costing $35 billion, more than twice the original estimate. Two utilities in South Carolina went bankrupt after spending $10 billion on a reactor, and then cancelled the project. Westinghouse, the major contractor for both projects, also declared bankruptcy.

With large reactors off the table, interest in smaller reactors has grown, which would be less expensive and easier to construct. There are several start-ups, but most notable is the reactor to be built in Wyoming funded in part by Terra Power, founded by Bill Gates. Cost of the project is estimated to be $4 billion. The federal government will contribute $2 billion and Gates’ company the rest. The reactor is about one-third the size of large nuclear plants but will generate enough electricity for 400,000 homes. Ground was broken last June with completion scheduled for 2030, which is probably optimistic. The NRC will take at least two years to approve the design, which is different from existing reactors. And if history is any guide, there will be construction delays and cost overruns. However, both Amazon and Google have decided to invest in small modular reactors currently being developed.

NuScale, another manufacturer of small reactors, recently had a project cancelled due to inflation and rising construction costs. At this point, it seems safe to say if smaller reactors make any difference, it’s still some years away.

Even longer term are the prospects for nuclear fusion, the forceful merging of atomic nuclei, which produces an immense amount of energy, much more than splitting the atom (fission), which all reactors have used since the 1950s. The good news is there has been considerable progress on fusion technology over the last decade and some see it as the answer to our energy problems. The bad news is that using nuclear fusion for generating large amounts of electricity will not be available until 2050 at the earliest.

What all of this indicates is that nuclear power will not play a significant role in producing electricity at a time when reliable emissions-free electricity will be needed most.

William Beaver, professor emeritus at Robert Morris University, has published a book and numerous articles on nuclear power.

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