Analysis: Examining Pitt's degree of difficulty in each of its 12 games

A popular query from local college football fans over the past month has been, “How is Pitt looking?”

Beyond the unoriginal, not-funny-anymore answer — “big and sweaty” — it’s difficult to come up with a definitive response. The most consequential moments of practice, plus two scrimmages, are closed to the media. Even Pat Narduzzi has expressed some uncertainty, and he lived in the same hotel with his players and saw every minute of practice since July 31.

TribLive asked ESPN.com college football insider David Hale for an opinion, and he offered a reasonable projection for a team that was 3-9 last season.

“If they’re even league average at quarterback, they get back to playing in a bowl with the schedule they have,” Hale said. “I do think it will be a little bit of an adjustment period on offense, for sure, where probably the best of what (offensive coordinator) Kade Bell wants to do we probably won’t see maybe until next year. I kind of have Pitt at 6-6. It seems like a reasonable thing to me.”

Keeping in mind the portal and graduation losses, growing pains associated with a new, hurry-up, no-huddle offense and a difficult November closing stretch, TribLive devised a three-tiered labeling system for the projected difficulty of each game:

• A, Pitt needs to win, or else.

• B, Pitt very well could win (watch, but don’t bet).

• C, A Pitt victory would be appropriately labeled an impressive upset.

Noon, Saturday, Kent State, Acrisure Stadium: The Golden Flashes bring a nine-game losing streak and questions on both lines into Pittsburgh. Pitt’s bigger offensive line might overwhelm its guests, so this might be a game well-suited for Bell to show off his playmakers. Watch out for two good Kent State running backs, Ky Thomas and Gavin Garcia. Thomas started his career at Minnesota, rushing for 824 yards and eight touchdowns in 2021, transferred to Kansas and sat out last season at Kent State after failing to get a transfer waiver.

Category: A

Noon, Sept. 7, at Cincinnati, Nippert Stadium: Let’s not forget last season when Pitt lost at home to Cincinnati before the Bearcats were 1-9 the rest of the way. Now, the Panthers must navigate a Big 12 road game. Not much is expected from the Bearcats this season. Lindy’s Sports projects them last in the 16-team Big 12. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby, a transfer from Indiana, threw for 1,587 yards and 15 touchdowns and added 276 yards and four more scores on the ground for the Hoosiers last season. And he played in only 10 games.

Category: A

3:30 p.m. Sept. 14, West Virginia, Acrisure Stadium: This game and its outcome will be evaluated differently because it’s West Virginia, and Pitt lost in Morgantown last season. Not only lost but did not cross the goal line. Maybe you haven’t noticed, but Pitt is 2-4 against West Virginia since 13-9. The Mountaineers will be a difficult test because of their ground game that finished first among Power 5s (third overall), with an average of 228.9 yard per game. Backs Jahiem White (842 yards) and C.J. Donaldson (798) and quarterback Garrett Greene (772) return. Donaldson needed only seven carries to get 125 yards against Pitt in 2022.

Category: A

3:30 p.m., Sept. 21, Youngstown State, Acrisure Stadium: This will be the third time Pitt played Youngstown State of the FCS after a major upheaval in the Panthers’ program. You’ll remember 2012 when first-year coach Paul Chryst suspended six players before the opener and then lost to the Penguins, 31-17. Narduzzi’s first game as Pitt coach in 2015 was against YSU, a team whose colors he wore for one season, and Pitt survived 45-37. Pitt is in a much better place today, and YSU is projected only as middle of the pack in the Missouri Valley Conference.

Category: A

TBA, Oct. 5, At North Carolina, Kenan Memorial Stadium: The last eight regular-season games are in the ACC, which is why a 4-0 start could be the key to a successful season. Time has caught up to the Tar Heels. They must find a way to replace Drake Maye, who completed 56 of 74 pass for 784 yards and six touchdowns in two games against Pitt. Running back Omarion Hampton rushed for 1,504 yards (fifth in the nation) in 2023. Meanwhile, UNC coach Mack Brown said he wants to play two quarterbacks: Max Johnson, formerly of Texas A&M and LSU, and Conner Harrell. Johnson has thrown for 5,852 yards and 47 touchdowns in 22 starts over four seasons.

Category: C

TBA, Oct. 12, California, Acrisure Stadium: Running back Jaydn Ott rushed for 897 and 1,305 yards the past two seasons and should be the focal point for the Bears in their first season in the ACC. This game will be Cal’s third on the East Coast among its first six games (Auburn and Florida State).

Category: B

7:30 p.m., Oct. 24, Syracuse: First-year coach Fran Brown hit the jackpot in the transfer portal when he lured former Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord to Syracuse. McCord threw for 3,170 yards and 24 touchdowns while completing 65.8% of his passes in an 11-1 regular season in 2023. What happens when his supporting cast will be different?

Category: B

TBA, Nov. 2, at SMU, Gerald J. Ford Stadium: SMU looked like a possible ACC contender, but then the season happened. The Mustangs needed a touchdown pass by Preston Stone with 1 minute, 18 seconds left Saturday to rally from a 24-13 deficit with 10 minutes left to a 29-24 victory against Nevada, a four-touchdown underdog. Still, this game is a serious road test for Pitt.

Category: C

TBA, Nov. 9, Virginia, Acrisure Stadium: The Cavaliers still are reloading under third-year coach Tony Elliott. Their 3-9 record last season included five losses by a total of 17 points.

Category: A

TBA, Nov. 16, Clemson, Acrisure Stadium: There’s been plenty of talk of how coach Dabo Swinney hasn’t kept up with the times because he largely avoids the transfer portal. Clemson was 9-4 last season with victories against Notre Dame, North Carolina and Kentucky (in the Gator Bowl). In four defeats, the Tigers averaged 390 yards of offense and gained more first downs than their opponent each time.

Category: C

TBA, Nov. 23, at Louisville, L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium: The Cardinals reached the ACC championship game last season when they put a scare into undefeated Florida State in a 16-6 loss. Now, an experienced defense challenges a Pitt offense that might be clicking after 10 games. Tough one to call.

Category: B

TBA, Nov. 30, at Boston College, Alumni Stadium: Bill O’Brien, a veteran coach of big-time college football and the NFL, takes over for Jeff Hafley, who escaped to coordinate the Green Bay Packers’ defense. Thomas Castellanos is a quarterback with good wheels, and this game is on the road. So look out.

Category: C