Despite strong turnaround seasons, Pitt and Duquesne given little chance to win conference tournaments

Even though Pitt (21-10, 14-6) and Duquesne (20-11, 10-8) have had strong bounce-back seasons, they are both relatively long shots to win their conference tournaments. Kenpom.com, a widely used college basketball analytics website, has published its projections for the upcoming conference tournament week.

As the No. 5 seed, Pitt has been given just a 6.6% chance of winning the ACC Tournament in Greensboro, N.C.

The ACC starts Tuesday in Greensboro, and the question on everyone's mind is whether it is more difficult to win the ACC tournament or the NCAA tournament. pic.twitter.com/1gpXXmGMy1

— Ken Pomeroy (@kenpomeroy) March 6, 2023

For reference, KenPom’s least likely winners last season were Akron in the MAC (6.7%), Richmond in the Atlantic 10 (7.0%), and Virginia Tech in the ACC (8.1%).

Pitt is 6-9 all-time in ACC Tournament play. The Panthers’ first game in the tournament will be at 2:30 p.m. Wednesday (ESPN). Coach Jeff Capel’s team will face the winner of No. 12 Florida State (9-22, 7-13) and No. 13 Georgia Tech (14-17, 6-14). Those clubs battle in the tournament’s first contest at 2 p.m. Tuesday.

“It’s exciting,” Capel said of preparing for tournament play. “This time of year, you may add a few things, but it is mainly tweaking some stuff — trying to make sure you are as fresh as you can possibly be.”

Regardless of who wins the Georgia Tech-Florida State game, the survivor will be getting Pitt for a third time this year. The Panthers beat the Yellow Jackets 71-60 in Atlanta on Jan. 14, and they won the rematch at the Petersen Events Center 76-68 on Feb. 21.

Meanwhile, the Seminoles won a 71-64 game in Oakland on Jan. 21. Pitt won the second game in Tallahassee 83-75 on Feb. 11.

“You should be pretty familiar with them a third time, have a feel for what they do,” Capel said of facing either school for a third time this year. “Maybe they have changed some things. That’s for us to find out, try to learn and be prepared for. But I don’t know of any other different challenges aside from the normal challenges when you are trying to get prepared for somebody.”

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In terms of their chances for the NCAA Tournament, Pitt is a No. 9 seed in Jerry Palms’ CBSSports.com Bracketology projection which was published on Monday. But ESPN.com’s Joe Lunardi has them as an 11th seed, barely avoiding one of the “First Four” games in Dayton. So it’d be best for the Panthers if they can win at least one game in Greensboro to solidify their spot in the field of 68.

As for Duquesne, despite going from just six wins a year ago to 20 victories this season, the Dukes will have to win the Atlantic 10 tournament to advance to the NCAA bracket. Most projections have the A-10 getting just one team into the field this season, and that would be the automatic bid from the winner of the conference tournament this week in Brooklyn.

The Dukes march into New York City as the sixth seed. Their first game will be at 7:30 p.m. Wednesday against either La Salle or Rhode Island. Kenpom.com is giving Keith Dambrot’s club just a 7.2% chance of winning the whole tournament and a 16.5% chance of making the final on Sunday afternoon.

The A-10 opens Tuesday in Brooklyn. The perpetual home of bid thieves, there are no at-large candidates in the A-10 for the first time in the 64-team era. Fordham picked a great year to finally be good, and has a very real chance of making its first tourney appearance since '92. pic.twitter.com/ftBTnW93kz

— Ken Pomeroy (@kenpomeroy) March 6, 2023

The Dukes won the inaugural A-10 tournament in 1977 and haven’t won it since. Given the roster turnover for the team this season, not a single player will take the court having played an A-10 tournament game with Duquesne in their career.

Center Austin Rotroff has been with the program since the 2018-19 season. But between injuries and the covid year, he’s never been available at the end of a season to participate in an A-10 postseason game.

“I’m just really excited,” Rotroff said Monday. “I like us going into it. I feel good about it. We had a good practice (Monday). Put one together Tuesday, and it’s go-time Wednesday.”

Duquesne topped Rhode Island (9-21, 5-13) at home 72-61 on Dec. 31. They beat La Salle (13-8, 7-11) on Feb. 22 by a final score of 91-74. Forward Joe Reece led the team in scoring in both games, totaling 18 against the Rams at the UPMC Cooper Fieldhouse and 26 in Philadelphia against the Explorers.

“I got involved very early. I thank my guards for that. But these upcoming games, it is a completely new season. The A-10 is a wonderful conference, and everyone is going to give it their all in the tournament,” Reese said Monday.

If the Dukes win Wednesday, they’ll play Fordham in the quarterfinals. The Rams beat Duquesne twice this year, 58-55 in Pittsburgh on Jan. 21 and 87-60 Saturday in the Bronx to close out the regular season. Fordham finished third in the conference with a 24-7 record (12-6 in conference play).

In the latest Breakfast with Benz podcast, Jerry DiPaola and Tim Benz talk about the chances Pitt and Duquesne have to win their conference tournaments in the ACC and Atlantic 10.

Listen: Tim Benz and Jerry DiPaola talk Pitt, Duquesne basketball