First Call: Steelers’ most improved player in 2020 will be …
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Wednesday’s “First Call” looks at an interesting question posed about the Pittsburgh Steelers by NFL.com: Who will be this year’s most improved player on the team?
Their answer is a good one. In this case, however, let’s not overlook the obvious.
NFL Network analytics expert Cynthia Frelund posted a column for NFL.com on Monday. It pointed out who she believed the most improved player will be on every team in the NFL in 2020.
In Frelund’s open to the piece, she stated, “Using my forward-looking data models, I’ve identified one player from each team who projects to see such an uptick in 2020 based on their performance trajectory and the scheme they’ll be playing in this season.”
Frelund didn’t exactly explain the nuts and bolts of the “data models” she used. But according to whatever numbers her software churned out, receiver Diontae Johnson was the player highlighted on the Steelers who will be the most improved player on the squad in 2020.
“Pro Football Focus credited Johnson with 18 forced missed tackles last season, which tied for the most among wideouts,” Frelund said. “Couple Ben Roethlisberger’s return from injury along with Johnson’s elusiveness/season of experience in the Steelers’ system, and his potential makes him not only a threat defenses will have to account for but someone you should earmark as a potential fantasy steal, as well.”
Sure. I see it.
Johnson is a second-year receiver who put up good numbers in his rookie campaign. And he managed to do so with only Devlin Hodges and Mason Rudolph throwing him the football. Yet he still led the Steelers in targets (92), catches (59) and touchdowns (5).
Clearly, those stats ought to improve with Roethlisberger under center. To the point that Johnson becomes a Pro Bowler? If that happens, great.
But the individual who should improve the most on the Steelers in 2020 is a guy the team knows can perform like a Pro Bowler when Roethlisberger is under center.
It’s a different wide receiver. A pass catcher who made a similar jump to the one Frelund is outlining with Johnson in his second year.
JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Johnson doesn’t have very far to go to get from good to great. Meanwhile, Smith-Schuster already was great his first two years. Unfortunately, he fell off a cliff last season without Roethlisberger throwing him the ball and without Antonio Brown taking defensive attention from him.
Plus the injuries. Plus the fumbles, drops, and misplays once he was targeted. Now he’s got a long way to go to get to merely “good” again.
Smith-Schuster went from 111 catches, 1,426 yards and seven touchdowns in 2018 to 42 catches, 552 yards and three touchdowns in 2019.
In other words, Smith-Schuster better be the most improved player on the Steelers. Because if he isn’t, not only will the Steelers decide against keeping him from the open market, but Smith-Schuster may not find that gold mine in free agency so many were predicting for him after 2018.
In any city.
If it’s not Smith-Schuster who is the most improved, then it better be running back James Conner. For many of the same reasons.
Conner is another Steeler who — like Smith-Schuster — showed what exists in him at the NFL level in 2018. But in a similar way, saw injuries and inconsistency dent his long-term value in Pittsburgh.
In fact, you could argue that Conner’s improvement is even more important than Smith-Schuster’s. Because there isn’t really a running back version of Johnson (or even James Washington) to push Conner in the backfield.
At least Johnson and Washington offset the troubles of Smith-Schuster from a year ago at the wide receiver spot.
I’d love to see what Frelund’s statistical model has to say about how much Smith-Schuster can be expected to regain from his previous production with Roethlisberger back and Johnson more of a known commodity as his colleague.
I’d like to see what the disparity is between those projections of Smith-Schuster getting back to his old form under those circumstances versus how much more Johnson can improve with presumably healthy incarnations of Smith-Schuster and Roethlisberger in the huddle with him.
With Johnson, what Frelund is doing is theorizing his ascent. With Smith-Schuster, what I’m describing is a recreation of what we know is in there.
At least, it should still be in there.
We already know Smith-Schuster can get to the level Frelund’s data is suggesting Johnson may reach. Because he already has. Both in 2017 and 2018.
We never thought “most improved player” would be a title Smith-Schuster should have to chase before his second contract.
But it’s a title he better earn if he wants to stay in Pittsburgh, or break the bank elsewhere.