Football Footnotes: AFC playoff picture could shift dramatically before Sunday's games even start

The AFC playoff picture is going to come into sharp focus after Week 16 is done. For the most part, that’ll happen before Sunday’s games even start.

The AFC West wild card showdown between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers already took place on Thursday night. The Steelers-Ravens and Texans-Chiefs games are slated for Saturday. And the Buffalo Bills are the only sure playoff team to kick off on Sunday.

For this Friday’s edition of “Football Footnotes,” here’s a preview of everything that’s about to happen in the AFC playoff race and a look back at what transpired Thursday night.

• The Los Angeles Chargers came back to beat the Denver Broncos, 34-27, at home on Thursday Night football. Former Steeler Bud Dupree had a sack of Bo Nix along the way to help Los Angeles’ cause.

Bud Dupree gets free for the sack!#DENvsLAC on Prime Video
Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/5q6qKzPGLr

— NFL (@NFL) December 20, 2024

At one point, Denver was up 24-13 in the third quarter, but the Chargers stomped back ahead with three touchdowns in the second half. Quarterback Justin Herbert was 23 for 31 for 284 yards and two touchdowns.

That means both teams are now 9-6, but L.A. holds the sixth seed, and the Broncos have fallen into the seventh slot. That’s because the Chargers have won both head-to-head meetings.

With Baltimore currently in the fifth position, the Ravens (9-5) are in line to play the Houston Texans (9-5) in Week 1 of the playoffs. Los Angeles would then come to Acrisure Stadium to play the Steelers (10-4), with Denver having to fly to Buffalo (11-3).

Kansas City (13-1) is currently the No. 1 seed and would get a bye.

I would definitely prefer to see the Broncos come here in the first round. Herbert is still a problem. While the Chargers do look like frauds at times, the Broncos don’t look much better.

Nix is intriguing, but head coach Sean Payton doesn’t seem to want any part of him pushing the ball down the field.

Bo Nix ends the night with 3.3 air yards per attempt, which is the second-lowest air yards per attempt in a game this season (min. 20 attempts), per @NextGenStats

The lowest? Bryce Young with 3.0 in Week 2 against...the Chargers.

Jesse Minter defense!

— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) December 20, 2024

If the Broncos came to Pittsburgh in the first round, I’d feel very confident the Steelers would beat them here a second time this year.

If Herbert and the Chargers show up? Hmmm. Yeah, I’ll put grandma’s Christmas card money down on the Steelers. But not much more.

• The Texans-Chiefs game is at 1 p.m. Saturday. It sounds like quarterback Patrick Mahomes is playing despite an ankle injury.

#Chiefs coach Andy Reid tells reporters that after a full week of practice for QB Patrick Mahomes, "We'll most likely end up playing him." Mahomes has a high-ankle sprain.

As for Hollywood Brown, who had targeted this week for his debut, Reid said there's a "good chance."

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 19, 2024

Houston defensive lineman Tim Settle warned Mahomes not to be out there unless he is mobile enough to protect himself.

“Pat better make a good decision.” #Texans defense promises to get after Chiefs Patrick Mahomes. Full comments from Tim Settle Jr. when we talked today. Texans defense ranks in the top 3 in sacks and turnovers. Ought to be fun Saturday at Arrowhead. @HoustonTexans pic.twitter.com/6qID6pHHCa

— Greg Bailey (@GregBailey13) December 18, 2024

Houston trails only the Steelers (30) in takeaways with 28. With 51 sacks, Denver is the only defense that has more than Houston’s 45. Then Baltimore is next with 44.

At ESPNBet, the line opened with the Texans as a 1-point favorite when it looked like Mahomes may not play. The Chiefs are now 3 ½-point favorites.

If the Chiefs beat Houston Saturday and win in Pittsburgh on Christmas Day, they’ll clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

“You go out and win two games,” Mahomes said at ESPN.com, “You’ll have a long break more than likely. If you can get through these games and win these games against two great opponents, it will give you some momentum going into the playoffs and hopefully give you a break then.”

If Houston wins and Baltimore wins, then they’ll all be tied with 10-5 records. The Texans have already clinched the AFC South. A victory over K.C. would give the Texans eight conference wins.

Under that scenario, the Steelers would only have seven, and the Ravens would have six. So Houston would have a leg up on the third seed. But they’d have to beat Baltimore on Christmas for that to hold up.

• If the Steelers win in the late game on Saturday in Baltimore, that’d be five straight wins there and nine of 10 in the rivalry overall. The NFL Network’s Kyle Brandt went on a screed this week about how this isn’t a rivalry anymore because of those recent results.

Thoughts, and facts, on the alleged Steelers-Ravens rivalry pic.twitter.com/MpbANNMIa4

— Kyle Brandt (@KyleBrandt) December 19, 2024

Steelers fans may pound their chest and echo that opinion. But if that’s the case, and it’s just like beating the Browns as Brandt is suggesting, then why do we always take such pride and boast so much about beating the Ravens?

Well, because it is still a rivalry despite Brandt’s argument to the contrary. If it isn’t, then there’s no reason to brag about the positive results so much, is there?

Also, as Ravens beat writer Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com pointed out earlier this week, the 6 1/2-point line is the largest gambling spread between the teams since December 2020. That was the game at Acrisure Stadium when the Steelers were favored by 10 1/2 points thanks to a coronavirus outbreak that sidelined nine Ravens starters.

The Steelers have also frequently been underdogs. In fact, before losing 18-16, Baltimore was a 3 ½-point favorite at Acrisure Stadium according to MGM earlier this year.

So, even if the Steelers keep winning, the games are always expected to be close. And they have been. The last win by more than one score in the rivalry was Dec. 29, 2019, when Baltimore won the last game of the regular season with its backups on the field against Devlin “Duck” Hodges, 28-10.

Please, save the hyperbole. It’s still a rivalry.

• Then we get to Sunday. The only other division champion left is Buffalo (11-3). The Bills are favored by 14 ½ points at home against New England. A win would keep them one game in front of Pittsburgh in the race for second place in the AFC if the Steelers win on Saturday. The Bills would be within a game of the Chiefs for the bye if Houston pulls off the win Saturday at Arrowhead.

The only other teams still alive on the fringes of the wild card race are the Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals. They are all 6-8. Indy hosts Tennessee. The Bengals welcome Cleveland. And the Dolphins are at home against the 49ers.

So they are all home favorites. According to NFL.com odds, though, the Colts have just a 12% chance of making the playoffs, Miami is at 6% and Cincy is only 4%. The Bengals play the Steelers in Week 18 at Acrisure Stadium.