MLB Draft expert sticking with Dylan Crews as Pirates' No. 1 pick despite concerns about cost
Suggesting that the Pittsburgh Pirates will draft LSU pitcher Paul Skenes with Major League Baseball’s top draft pick next month has become an increasingly popular opinion. That’s largely because there’s a growing belief that longtime perceived No. 1 pick — LSU outfielder Dylan Crews — will ask for more money than what the Pirates are willing to pay.
Monday morning, ESPN writer Kiley McDaniel suggested that Crews (or at least his representation) is less than thrilled at the idea of playing in Pittsburgh at the price it would take to do so. He is now of the opinion that the Pirates will draft Skenes.
On Wednesday, I interviewed LSU play-by-play man Chris Blair for our “Breakfast With Benz” podcast. He expressed a similar sentiment.
“Listening to people talk about it, for whatever reasons — and it may have been because of the run Paul had in the regional of the College World Series — that after four-fifths of the season, it was always Dylan Crews as the No. 1 pick, Skenes as the second pick, and (Wyatt) Langford out of Florida, the third pick,” Blair said. “Suddenly, over the last two to three weeks, that first and second slot has started to wiggle a little bit. I don’t think that’s all about business. But if there is some hesitation due to some business dealings, I think, for me, just as a fan watching the news, it looks like to me Pittsburgh’s probably going to go with Paul Skenes.”
However, in a mock draft posted Thursday, MLB.com’s Jim Callis is sticking with the idea that the Pirates should take Crews. This year’s Golden Spikes winner had been perceived to be the top pick most of the season. And Callis doesn’t think cost is going to be the stumbling block that others do.
“There are rumors that Crews wants $10 million, which would be doable because the No. 1 choice comes with an assigned value of $9,721,000 and the Pirates have the largest bonus pool at $16,185,700,” Callis said. “If the Nationals have their hearts set on Skenes at No. 2, the only other club that might meet that price would be the Tigers at No. 3. If Pittsburgh wants Crews, it seems impossible that he could turn down any offer that starts with a 9, which would shatter the all-time bonus record of $8,416,300 set by Spencer Torkelson and the Tigers in 2020.”
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Callis added that “in order of likelihood” he’d go with Crews to the Bucs, followed by Skenes and then Indiana high school outfielder Max Clark, who would “take the biggest discount.” Then he slots Langford and North Carolina high school outfielder Walker Jenkins as outside shots to go No. 1. Callis says Langford’s chances are “stronger than you might think.”
If the Pirates do pass on both LSU players, Callis predicts the Washington Nationals will also pass on Crews and will take Skenes instead, leaving the Golden Spikes winner to go third to Detroit.
“I think (the financial element) is probably where it starts,” Blair said of Crews’ position about the Pirates drafting him. “I believe that Dylan Crews and what will be his representation (Scott Boras) feel like he is the No. 1 player, should be the No. 1 pick. That should bring a set number, whatever that value is that they placed on it for his services. There was some talk from people in and around the College World Series that thought that Paul Skenes suddenly now might be the first pick because maybe there’s a way to get him for less money than Dylan Crews. I don’t have any inside information. I certainly don’t meet with Dylan or his agent. … But I think you can follow and connect the dots and see why it’s easy to kind of put that together and say he may want more money. He may want something a little better out of the gate.”
I’ve been a Crews guy throughout. He is a five-tool player who ended the season with a .426 batting average and a 1.280 OPS. If the Pirates decide to go with Skenes instead, though, I won’t be upset about it at all. He’s a marvelous pitching prospect.
If it’s a baseball decision, great. If it’s a financial matter, however, that will be disappointing.
For the Pirates, though, Skenes’ run through the college baseball landscape was dynamic enough in 2023 (209 strikeouts and a 1.69 ERA) that they’ll never have to acknowledge that the decision was about cash, even if it ends up being the case behind the scenes.
In the latest podcast, Tim Benz and Kevin Gorman discuss the MLB draft and the Pirates’ sweep of the San Diego Padres
Tim Benz is a Tribune-Review staff writer. You can contact Tim at tbenz@triblive.com or via X. All tweets could be reposted. All emails are subject to publication unless specified otherwise.
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