NL MVP race more wide open than AL according to betting odds: See our best values

BY SPENCER URQUHART | Home Field Sports

Major League Baseball is stocked with superstars in 2023, and there’s no higher individual award than MVP in both the American League and National League.

World Series odds are still the go-to for most MLB futures bettors, but both the AL and NL MVP awards are fun to keep up with and tend to offer some intriguing values. That’s because it’s rare for a player to win back-to-back MVP awards, and it’s reflected in the odds considering both 2022 MVPs Aaron Judge and Paul Goldschmidt aren’t favored to repeat.

Judge is still among the AL favorites at +700, only trailing two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani at +220, but Goldschmidt has the ninth-best NL odds at +1500 with Juan Soto favored at +550.

There are also some intriguing names further down the list in both leagues, so let’s take a deeper look and see if we can find the best values.

NOTE: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

National League MVP odds

Player Team Odds Juan Soto Padres +550 Mookie Betts Dodgers +950 Ronald Acuna Braves +1000 Fernando Tatis Jr. Padres +1000 Trea Turner Phillies +1100 Manny Machado Padres +1200 Nolan Arenado Cardinals +1200 Freddie Freeman Dodgers +1400 Paul Goldschmidt Cardinals +1500 Austin Riley Braves +1600 Pete Alonso Mets +1600 Matt Olson Braves +2400 Francisco Lindor Mets +2500 Kyle Schwarber Phillies +3500 Xander Bogaerts Padres +4000 Michael Harris Braves +4500 Jazz Chisholm Marlins +7000 Ozzie Albies Braves +8000 Bryce Harper Phillies +8000 J.T. Realmuto Phillies +8000

Analysis: Soto comes in as the heavy favorite, but there’s no way we’re betting on him at +450 considering he might not even have the best hitting season on his own team, which is why we like his Padres teammate Manny Machado better from a value standpoint at +1200.

Machado was the NL MVP runner-up last season behind Goldschmidt and should put up just as strong or stronger numbers this season with an improved supporting cast around him, and Ronald Acuna is another favorite worth keeping an eye on at +1000 considering he’s capable of putting up elite numbers and is now more than a year removed from a torn ACL to where he should return to his pre-injury dominance.

As we go further down the list, Trea Turner feels like a bargain at +1100, as he’s moving to a hitter’s park in Philadelphia and should benefit from the new rules to where he could be in line for a career-best season.

Austin Riley is another name to keep an eye on at +1600 as someone who’s evolving into an elite power hitter at third base, and his teammate Michael Harris is a long shot to watch at +4500 since he put up Acuna-esque numbers in his NL Rookie of the Year campaign last season and could reach greater heights in 2023.

American League MVP odds

Player Team Odds Shohei Ohtani Angels +220 Aaron Judge Yankees +700 Mike Trout Angels +800 Julio Rodriguez Mariners +900 Yordan Alvarez Astros +1200 Vladimir Guerrero Blue Jays +1300 Jose Ramirez Guardians +1500 Kyle Tucker Astros +2500 Rafael Devers Red Sox +3000 Adley Rutschman Orioles +3500 Byron Buxton Twins +4000 Wander Franco Rays +4000 Corey Seager Rangers +4500 Carlos Correa Twins +5000 Bo Bichette Blue Jays +5500 Alex Bregman Astros +6000 Luis Robert Jr. White Sox +6000 Jose Abreu Astros +6000 Randy Arozarena Rays +6500 Jose Altuve Astros +7000

Analysis: The AL MVP race doesn’t feel as wide open as the NL, as it has the feel of a two-horse race between Ohtani and Judge considering just how far ahead of the pack they were last season.

It’s tough to bet on a +220 chalk favorite, but the bottom line is that Ohtani is in line to win the award if healthy since he puts up elite numbers as both a hitter and a pitcher to where we’d feel better about betting on him as opposed to Judge, who likely won’t hit 60-plus home runs again and doesn’t have as much support throughout the lineup around him as one would think.

Mike Trout’s recent injury history has us fading him at +800, and Julio Rodriguez simply doesn’t offer value at +900 despite his elite skill set, so we’re rolling with sluggers Yordan Alvarez (+1200) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1300) from a value standpoint since they’re both capable of putting up offensive numbers that could top the AL and will be leading the way for two of the AL’s top teams.

As far as long shots, Guerrero’s Blue Jays teammate Bo Bichette could offer value at +5500 as one of the best pure hitters in the game at shortstop, and Alvarez’s Astros teammates Kyle Tucker (+2500) and Jeremy Pena (+12000) could also be worth taking fliers on considering the voters tend to favor players on contending teams.

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