Outscored on the season and outgained in every game, the Steelers — somehow — are 6-3
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It would be easy — if a bit snarky — when evaluating this peculiar Pittsburgh Steelers season to take the route of pondering what is akin to a philosophical question.
Are these Steelers one of the best bad teams the NFL has ever seen?
Or are they one of the worst good teams?
Whichever you choose, it’d be wise to heed advice in not sharing your terminology with 295-pound All-Pro Steelers defensive tackle Cameron Heyward.
“Who the heck is saying that?” Heyward retorted when asked by a reporter late this past week how he’d respond to observers who believe the Steelers have gotten to 6-3 by way of “smoke and mirrors.”
“I don’t think anyone’s really talking to me and saying (that),” Heyward said, “because if they are, they ought to feel dumb about saying that to me.
“I just think, who are they judging? They’re not in this. Smoke and mirrors? Screw you.”
Heyward spoke calmly and was clearly having fun with the inquiry. But who could blame him if deep down he was agitated by the idea his team’s lofty position in the standings (tied for the third-best record in the AFC) is somehow the result not of the Steelers’ labors but of some sort of illusion or sorcery or luck.
“We work too hard for this,” Heyward said. “These guys (Heyward’s teammates) dedicate their lives to this, and we try to be a good defense. Smoke and mirrors? I think that’s a cloud of smoke.”
Heyward and the Steelers deserve to be proud of their record. But that doesn’t mean those who wonder how sustainable it is are necessarily blowing smoke, either.
After all, the Steelers rank 28th in the 32-team NFL in total offense. They also rank 28th in total defense. No other team — not even the 1-8 Carolina Panthers — is that low in both categories.
The Steelers also have been outgained by yardage in each of their first nine games. That’s extraordinarily rare in the NFL. In an illustration of how much so, consider that each of the teams with the four worst records in the league this season have had at least two games apiece in which they outgained an opponent.
The Panthers, Arizona Cardinals (2-8), New York Giants (2-8) and New England Patriots (2-8) have combined for a 7-32 aggregate record … but also 11 games in which one of them had more yards than the opposition.
The Steelers haven’t pulled that trick even once.
No matter, they say.
“Coach (Mike Tomlin) says it best each and every week, man,” veteran cornerback Patrick Peterson said. “Our business is winning. And we are winning.”
Indeed. The Steelers were the only team in NFL history to have a winning record after eight games despite being outgained in each. The same holds true for nine weeks.
And if the Steelers end up with fewer yards than the Browns during Sunday’s 1 p.m. game in Cleveland, they’ll hold that distinction for 10 games, too.
The Steelers also have by far (by 25 points) the worst season point differential (minus-26) of any team with at least six wins this season.
“It doesn’t matter,” said the Steelers’ best player, outside linebacker T.J. Watt. “No one’s going to remember in 10 years what the scores were.
“It’s all about wins and losses.”
So how, exactly, are these Steelers winning more than they’re losing?
Any analysis to this end must begin with turnovers. The Steelers are tied for the NFL lead in takeaways (18) and turnover differential (plus-10). Further, only one team has turned the ball over fewer times (eight).
The Steelers have turnovers on a league-low 6.9% of their drives, per Sharp Football Analysis. That helps make up for them scoring on drives at a rate that’s third-worst in the league (29.4%) or them punting more than any team (49.0% of drives).
Defensively, pass rushing is the area the Steelers excel most among their peers — not surprising, with their stellar bookend pair of edge rushers in Watt and Alex Highsmith. The Steelers rank near the top of the NFL in sacks (eighth at 3.0 per game), percentage of dropbacks the opposing quarterback is pressured (ninth at 25.5%, per pro-football-reference.com) and QB knockdowns (tied for fourth at 3.9 per game). Opposing quarterbacks are hurried 8.2% of the time, ranking 14th in the league.
Pro Football Focus grades the Steelers as the league’s sixth-best pass rushing team, while Sports Info Solutions’ metric ranks them 11th.
More broadly, PFF grades the Steelers defense 16th in the NFL (exactly average), while SIS pegs them 13th. The run defense is considered middle-of-the-road (16th via SIS, 17th by PFF), as are the Steelers’ coverage abilities (16th by SIS, 19th by PFF).
The Steelers defense, though, easily rates better than the offense, which grades No. 28 among 32 NFL teams by PFF and No. 23 by SIS.
Both outlets, as might be expected, rate the Steelers running game more favorably than their passing attack. That, of course, falls most directly on quarterback Kenny Pickett.
Pickett has some of the worst traditional stats of any quarterback in the league. Among 33 qualifying passers, Pickett ranks 26th in yards per attempt (6.4), 25th in passer rating (81.1), 29th in QBR (36.3) and 30th in completion percentage (61.3%). Most of the quarterbacks near him in those rankings have either been benched, are injury-replacement backups or are rookies.
Pickett is 26th in the NFL in passing yards (1,616) and tied for 28th in touchdown passes (six). PFF grades him as the No. 24 overall quarterback and No. 26 passer.
Pickett, though, has avoided interceptions to the point he can tie the franchise record for most single-season consecutive starts without throwing one at six.
And, of course, for what might be the best explanation for the Steelers’ record out-pacing their peripheral stats, there is the phenomenon that is “Fourth Quarter Kenny.”
Once the whistle sounds to end the third quarter, Pickett transforms from a quarterback whose numbers suggest he should be benched into a passer worthy of All-Pro consideration.
Pickett ranks third in the NFL in fourth-quarter completion percentage (69.4%), second in yards per attempt (8.8), fourth in passer rating (101.5), sixth in yards per completion (12.6) and tied for first in fewest interceptions (one).
No NFL quarterback has directed more fourth-quarter comebacks (three) and only one has more game-winning drives than Pickett’s three.
In some ways, Picket’s fourth-quarter magic is emblematic for the Steelers on whole.
Overall, they’ve been far from pretty. But they merit acclaim for making the necessary clutch plays at the big moments that have allowed them to win twice as often as they’ve lost this season.
“You’ve got to win at all costs in this game,” Pickett said. “That’s all I truly care about. Of course, you want to light up the stat sheet, but as long as we’re getting the wins, I’m OK with that. I sleep good with getting a win. So, keep pushing, keep having that mindset, stay together as a group — and we’ll be all right.”