Steelers 4 Downs: Jaylen Warren excelling in analytics more than Najee Harris
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1. Warren courts more carries
The faction of the Pittsburgh Steelers fanbase that believes Jaylen Warren should take over as the No. 1 running back over Najee Harris often points to Warren’s superior yards per carry both in 2023 (4.7 vs. 3.8) and career (4.8 vs. 3.9). The reality is it’s far from that simple, though, for myriad reasons — i.e., Warren’s role as a third-down back can lead to empty yards on draw plays.
But the performances of both backs during the Steelers’ most recent game (Nov. 2 against the Tennessee Titans) provide a little more backing to the claim that Warren is deserving of the bigger role he’s gotten.
The NFL’s Next Gen Stats arm reports that, of all league running backs who had at least 10 carries during Week 9, Warren had the best “rush yards over expected” at plus-41 on just 11 carries. Seven of Warren’s 11 carries went for more yards than an average NFL running back might have expected to gain on each carry, based on factors such as defensive alignment, field position and blocking.
Next Gen also says Harris did not face an eight-man box on any of his 16 carries against the Titans. For the season, Harris (17%) and Warren (14.29%) have similar rates of “stacked boxes” for their runs.
2. Jaylen’s jumps
Warren has as many carries of 10 or more yards this season (nine) as Harris — despite Harris having 100 carries to Warren’s 56.
In more subjective evaluation by Pro Football Focus, Warren ranks 30th among the 63 NFL running backs with the most carries this season; Harris is 48th. Among that group with 32 carries or more, Warren grades as the 21st-best runner, Harris the 52nd. Warren has a slight edge in yards after contact per carry (2.93 to 2.91) but a significant one in “missed tackles forced” per carry (.32 to .20).
Warren also has a significant edge in the grade for receiving (he rates 13th among NFL backs, Harris 43rd) with a much better rate of receiving yards per route run — Warren’s 1.82 is fourth-best in the league, whereas Harris is at 0.86.
3. Between the 20s
After losing naming rights to the stadium, Heinz paid for sponsorship of the “red zone” during Steelers games at Acrisure Stadium. They aren’t getting much of a return on that investment.
The Steelers have run the second-fewest rate of plays from inside their opponents’ 20-yard line this season. Only 8.8% of Steelers’ snaps have been inside the red zone.
Interestingly, only two teams have allowed their opponents to run fewer plays in the “red zone” than the Steelers (10.6%). Put together, no team’s games this season have featured a higher rate of snaps “between the 20s” than the Steelers’.
Add to that the fact even during the rare occasions when a team gets deep penetration into opponents’ territory, they aren’t doing much with it. The Steelers have the sixth-worst rate of converted red-zone trips into touchdowns (45.5%) and the eighth-best rate at preventing other teams from scoring touchdowns once in the red zone (46.7%).
4. No offense
Some of the numbers Sharp Football Analysis relays about the Steelers and Green Bay Packers suggest points will be at a premium during Sunday’s game between the two — especially early.
First, think failures on first and second downs. The Steelers reach third down during 54.2% of their sets of downs, the second-worst rate in the NFL. The Packers reach third down during 53.5% of their sets of downs, the third-worst rate in the NFL.
How about first-half production? Green Bay has the second-fewest points per drive rate in the NFL at 0.84; the Steelers have the third-worst points per drive rate at 1.02.
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