Steelers 4 Downs: Plenty of 1-possession games, Kenny Pickett NFL’s most 'aggressive' QB

1. Tight games

Likely as much as anything a function of having an above-average defense and below-average offense combining to keep points — and, by extension, victory margins — low, the Pittsburgh Steelers have become a seemingly weekly showcase for close, down-to-the-wire games.

Dating to just before Thanksgiving last season, 10 of the past 13 Steelers games have been decided by one score or less. Since the start of last season, 15 of the Steelers’ 22 games have had winning margins in that eight-or-fewer point range. The Steelers are 10-5 in those close contests, compiling the second-most wins by eight or fewer points since the start of the 2022 season. The Steelers have won six one-possession games in a row and eight of the past nine they’ve played.

But the Steelers’ successes in one-score games predates the Kenny Pickett era. They were 8-2-1 under those circumstances in 2021, good for a .712 winning percentage that leads all NFL teams in one-score games since then.

In 2020, again, the Steelers were very successful in games decided by eight or fewer points (going 7-2). And yes, their 25-9-1 record over the past three-plus seasons in those games accounts for both the most wins and highest winning percentage of any team in that span.

You can even go all the way back to 2017. In that six-plus season sample size, the Steelers have played 68 one-score games. They have won more one-score games (45) and have a better winning percentage in one-score games (.676) than any team in the NFL.

2. Aggressive Kenny

Pickett deserves plenty of critiquing and criticism for how he’s performed through five games this season. But one pejorative the Steelers quarterback does not deserve is the backhanded compliment that he’s “a game manager.”

Pickett might not be a proverbial gunslinger. But by one measure compiled by Next Gen Stats, Pickett doesn’t come across as safe or conservative.

Pickett has the highest “aggressiveness” rate of any NFL quarterback. Defined by the percentage of passing attempts a quarterback makes in which there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion (think, “into tight coverage”), Pickett’s 25.8% aggressiveness rate dwarfs all but one other QB. Aside from the Green Bay Packers’ Jordan Love (25.3%), none of the other 32 qualifying passers has thrown more than 18.9% of his passes into such tight windows.

By comparison, Pickett’s “AGG%” as a rookie last season was 15.4%. Perennial MVP candidates Jalen Hurts (11.3%), Patrick Mahomes (11.4%) and Lamar Jackson (11.9%) are in the bottom half of the list of AGG%.

3. Picking up the pace

Pickett shot up the aggressiveness list over his past two games. In Week 4 at the Houston Texans, 30.4% of Pickett’s passes were thrown into those aforementioned tight windows, and in last week’s win against the Baltimore Ravens, 40.6% were. The latter figure was highest for any quarterback in any game this season, and Pickett joins Love as the only QB’s to lead the league in AGG% in consecutive weeks.

The question, then, becomes: Is Pickett — it innately or with purpose — trying to be aggressive? Or are his receivers generally failing to create any separation, thereby forcing Pickett’s hand?

It’s worth noting Pickett has played all but 27 snaps this season without the eligible pass-catcher who’s among the best in the NFL at getting open, Diontae Johnson. Johnson is expected to come off the injured reserve list after the bye.

4. Pickett to Pickens

Then again, the Steelers’ unquestioned top target in Johnson’s stead thrives when thrown to with little separation — from defenders, or even from the sideline. George Pickens’ 41-yard touchdown reception from Pickett proved to be the winning points in last week’s 17-10 victory against the Baltimore Ravens.

According to Next Gen, Pickens was just 1.8 yards from the sideline when he caught the pass. Pickens has 327 receiving yards on sideline targets over the span of his two-season career, by far the most in the NFL. No other receiver even has 200 such receiving yards since the start of the 2022 season.

Pickens against the Ravens tied for his career high in receptions (six) and established a new high in receiving yards (130) despite the fact he had the lowest average cushion (the closest defender was an average of 3.4 yards away at the time of snap on Pickens’ targets) and average separation (the closest defender was an average of 1.1 yards away at the time the ball arrived on Pickens’ targets) of any receiver in the NFL during Week 5.

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