Steelers 4 Downs: Struggles with deep balls help explain inexplicable Lamar Jackson struggles vs. Steelers

1. Lamar’s losses

Two-time MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens has struggled against his team’s biggest rival, the Pittsburgh Steelers. He is 1-4 as a starter against them, and his 66.7 career passer rating vs. the Steelers is by far his worst against any team and pales in comparison to his 101.7 career rate. Against no other opponent Jackson has faced more than once does he have a career passer rating lower than 80.0.

More subjectively, consider Pro Football Focus grades. Among 91 career starts, three of Jackson’s worst six game grades are for starts against the Steelers. Four of the five starts against the Steelers rate among his 11 worst-graded starts in his career. Only Jackson’s 2023 outing at Acrisure Stadium graded out well among any of his games against the Steelers, but it still resulted in a Ravens defeat.

In Jackson’s other four starts against the Steelers, he had either his worst or second-worst graded game of that given season. That includes 2024, and this will be the first season Jackson faces the Steelers twice.

Jackson’s completion percentage (56.97% against the Steelers, 65.66% against everyone else), interception rate (1.7% to 4.8%) and TD pass rate (6.6% to 3.0%) plummet when facing the Steelers.

Of course, his .200 winning percentage as a starter against his rivals is almost unfathomable considering he posts .767 against everyone else.

2. Not connecting long

A lack of deep-ball success has helped define Jackson’s struggles against the Steelers. Over his career versus the Steelers, Jackson (per PFF) is 5 for 21 with no touchdowns on balls thrown to a target 20 or more yards down the field. That’s a 23.8% completion rate on such passes. Jackson completes 35.8% of his deep throws against all other teams.

Including playoffs, Jackson has 43 touchdown passes on those 20-plus yards downfield throws over 92 starts against any team not named the Steelers. He has no deep touchdown passes against them, though. Jackson was 0 for 4 on deep throws when the teams met last month. In 2024 overall, he has seven touchdown passes and a 124.7 passer rating on deep throws.

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Jackson’s minus-13.8% completion percentage above expected against the Steelers on Nov. 17 was the worst of any NFL quarterback in Week 11. He averaged 5.1 “air” yards per completion, well below his season average of 6.6.

3. Divisional success

The Steelers can clinch the AFC North with a victory Saturday in Baltimore, which would improve them to 4-1 this season in divisional play. The Steelers only once have had a losing record within their division since the AFC North was formed in 2002. With wins against the Ravens and again at home against the Cincinnati Bengals in the regular-season finale, the Steelers would end up with five division wins for the ninth time in 23 seasons of the AFC North.

The division’s other three teams have combined for six 5-1 seasons against their three rivals.

A win Saturday also would improve the Steelers to 41-13 (.759) in divisional games from Week 12 and beyond since Mike Tomlin took over as coach in 2007. No other team across the NFL has more than 32 such late-season intra-division wins or better than a .677 winning percentage in them over these past 18 years.

4. Only need two

In a sign of how explosive and efficient the Ravens’ offense is, consider that only 38.5% of their sets of downs reach a third down. That’s the best rate in the NFL and a stark contrast to the Steelers, who rank fourth worst in the league with more than half (50.5%) of their sets of downs reaching a third down.

Those figures help explain the disparity between the teams’ success when they enter scoring territory. Baltimore has converted 74.1% of its red zone trips into touchdowns. The Steelers get into the end zone just 45.8% of the time they take it to the opponents’ 20 yard-line. Baltimore ranks as best in the league, and the Steelers are third worst.

Incidentally, the Steelers aren’t even getting inside the 10 often enough after they get to the 20. They have managed 23 goal-to-go situations in 14 games and rank 30th in the NFL with a 56.5% rate of scoring touchdowns once they do.