Tim Benz: Doomsday predictions for Steelers far-fetched, but worthy of concern

When I first read the statement from CBS’ Adam Schein about the Pittsburgh Steelers, I thought it was a bit hyperbolic.

“If everything breaks right, they win two more,” Schein said of the Steelers’ remaining schedule. “I honestly have bad vibes right now when it comes to these Pittsburgh Steelers.”

Yeah, it’s a little excessive. As bad as the Steelers (8-3) looked in Cleveland Thursday night, I don’t see them going to 2-4 down the stretch.

But then I started thinking about it: Am I really sure I see them winning more than two?

Eh, probably.

More than three?

I’m not certain.

And if I can’t guarantee that the Steelers will win a minimum of four more games, I guess I shouldn’t laugh off a prediction of the team winning only two.

I saw @AdamSchein say of the #Steelers “if everything breaks right, they win two more.” I say at least three wins. Maybe four. Clev return game. At least one Cincy game. Split the other four What about you?

— Tim Benz (@TimBenzPGH) November 25, 2024

First of all, a total late-season collapse is by no means beyond the realm of possibility for the Steelers. Last year’s team played a 7-4 start into a 7-7 quagmire.

Mike Tomlin’s bunch also turned 11-0 into 12-4 in 2020. An 8-5 start dissolved into 8-8 and a failure to make the playoffs in 2019. We also saw 7-2-1 devolve into 9-6-1 and a playoff miss in 2018.

In other words, let’s avoid pretending that such a collapse in 2024 is impossible.

Then, in terms of the schedule, there’s one game I fully anticipate the Steelers losing. That’s on the road in Philadelphia (Dec. 15).

The Steelers have lost 10 in a row there, dating back to 1965. The Eagles have won seven in a row this year. They are 9-2. Their point differential of plus-97 is third best in the NFL, behind only Detroit (plus-177) and Buffalo (plus-106).

That leaves five games on the schedule. I doubt that the Steelers would get swept by either Cleveland or Cincinnati. So give the Steelers the return game against the Browns at Acrisure Stadium in two weeks and the regular season finale against the Bengals on the North Shore in Week 18. After all, it’s possible that game could mean nothing for the Bengals at that point.

There are your two wins, totaling a minimum of 10 for the season. However, are any of the other three games locks for the Steelers?

I don’t think so. They are already 2.5-point underdogs at 4-7 Cincinnati this Sunday, and I’d fully expect a similar line in Baltimore (8-4) on Dec. 21 and at home against the Kansas City Chiefs (10-1) on Christmas Day.

So, no. Schein’s scenario, while deflating for Steelers’ fans, is far from a baseless hot take.

Allow me, though, to paint a somewhat more optimistic picture.

Many people, myself included, predicted that the Steelers would probably lose one of the four games against the Ohio teams.

OK, they just lost it. Now win the next three against the Bengals and Browns, who have a combined record of 7-15.

Keep in mind that the Steelers are 1-5-1 in their last seven trips to Cleveland. They have won 9 of 11 in Cincinnati and six times in their last seven trips down to Baltimore.

Perhaps the Steelers got their toughest road divisional game out of the way — to say nothing of the Ravens troubles (1-8 over the last nine meetings) with the Steelers overall since 2020.

That’s an argument for how the Steelers can get to at least three remaining wins against the divisional teams, again, keeping in mind the potential lack of stakes associated with what could be a meaningless game for Cincinnati in Week 18.

That leaves the Christmas Day game against the Super Bowl champion Chiefs.

Do the Chiefs really want to be in Pittsburgh on Christmas Day? Don’t Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce want to get on a plane as soon as possible to spend the holiday with Brittany and Taylor somewhere besides the North Side? Aren’t the Chiefs due to lose one of these last-second, one-score games they keep winning all the time?

Hey, if they can almost lose to the Carolina Panthers, they can lose to the Steelers.

Remember, that slumping 2020 team pulled out a Week 16 win over 10-4 Indianapolis. The wheezing 2018 club shocked the eventual Super Bowl champion Patriots, then nearly stunned the 13-win Saints in New Orleans. Last year’s team helped reverse its course by winning in Seattle, something the franchise almost never does.

There you have it.

Either sweep the remaining divisional games, or take three of four in some AFC North combination and upset the Chiefs (or Eagles). There’s four of six to close out the season and put 12 W’s in the win column for the year.

Optimistic? Sure.

But not any more wildly optimistic than predicting two wins is significantly pessimistic.

LISTEN: Matt Williamson joined me as I filled in for Mark Madden on 105.9 The X on Monday to discuss all things Steelers, AFC North.