Tim Benz: Familiar rivals, different expectations for Steelers-Ravens in 2024
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Few things in the NFL are as predictable — and anticipated — as a Steelers-Ravens game with significant stakes and AFC North title implications.
The latest chapter of this rivalry is taking on a decidedly different type of anticipation — the expectation of points actually being scored.
Usually, the gravitational force of Black-and-Gold vs. Purple-and-Black pulls these two teams into some sort of mid-teens to mid-teens final score. In fact, over the past five installments of this showdown (four won by Pittsburgh), neither club has reached 20 points.
You have to go back to Nov. 1, 2020, to find a game when both teams got into the 20s, and you have to retreat back to a 39-38 Steelers win in 2017 to find the last time either (or both) teams touched the 30-point barrier.
Sunday’s matchup between the clubs, however, could go in a different direction.
The Steelers are entering the game on an offensive hot streak by their standards — a bar that has been, admittedly, quite low in the post-Ben-Roethlisberger era. Coordinator Arthur Smith’s offense has posted an average of 30.7 points per game over the team’s current four-game win streak. Last year’s team didn’t hit 30 points until Mason Rudolph was installed as the quarterback in Week 16.
Meanwhile, the Ravens have the NFL’s top overall offense (440.2 yards per game), top rushing offense (182.6 yards per game), top scoring offense (31.8 points per game) and third-best passing offense (257.6).
Conversely, the Ravens’ pass defense is the worst in football, allowing 294.9 yards per game — 30.8 yards more per game than 31st-place Tampa Bay. Their 25.3 points per game allowed is 25th in the NFL.
The Steelers defense has much better numbers overall on the season (16.2 points per game, 2nd NFL). That side of the ball has been shaky at times of late, though. Over the past six weeks, the Steelers have yielded 339.5 yards per game. On a season-long pace, that would be 19th in the NFL. Against the Washington Commanders last week, the defense yielded back-to-back scoring drives around halftime that totaled 20 plays over 165 yards and, 7 minutes and 28 seconds of possession time.
“You’ve got to acknowledge what you do well without making your guys feel overconfident in those types of things and know there’s work to do, and also correcting the things that go badly without beating them up too badly that they lose confidence in all the good things they do,” defensive coordinator Teryl Austin said.
“There’s a fine line there. We discuss it. Our guys are fine with it. We’ve got grown men in the locker room, and they can handle the hard truths. We know the things we do well and the things that we have to improve, and that’s how we’re attacking this week.”
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Normally, those defensive lulls would be cause for alarm, given the Steelers’ offensive struggles in recent years. But since Russell Wilson has been inserted into the starting lineup as the quarterback, the deep ball and quick response threat has been reintroduced to the Steelers offense for, frankly, the first time since Roethlisberger hurt his elbow early in the 2019 season.
So even if the defense has trouble containing the Ravens’ attack led by MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson and former All-Pro running back Derrick Henry, there’s a sense that the Steelers may at least be able to keep up on the scoreboard.
“We can definitely score points. We believe in what we can do,” Wilson said Thursday. “Arthur has done a good job getting us in the right plays and for me to get guys in the right situations as well. Our work ethic is top-notch. When you put work in, it adds up.”
Early in the week, head coach Mike Tomlin suggested that the Ravens’ defensive numbers aren’t to be believed — essentially advancing the notion that the Ravens’ leaky pass defense is nothing more than a byproduct of opponents trying to play catch-up or giving up on the run because Baltimore’s rush defense is No. 1 in the league.
“When I turn the tape on, I don’t see negligence. I see a group that’s definitively up on people, and a lot of people are getting out of their personalities and are simply somewhat one dimensional — throwing the ball 40 and 50 times against them,” Tomlin said Tuesday.
Yeah. Perhaps. Based on what we saw from Cincinnati and Cleveland in recent weeks, though, maybe the passing yards are easy enough to get and are preferable to slamming the ball into Nnamdi Madubuike and company.
“I think we have a very solid, really good game plan for them. We’ll see what happens,” tight end Pat Freiermuth said this week. “We are comfortable in how we produce points offensively. We have all the faith in the world in our defense. We are excited for a big-time matchup and putting some points up on the board.”
Normally, the formula for a Steelers-Ravens game is to win the war of attrition. Keep the game close and low-scoring. Hopefully, you have the ball last so Justin Tucker/Chris Boswell can kick a game-winning field goal in the final seconds.
Now it might be, match each scoring drive, convert every red zone chance into seven points, and hope Wilson/Jackson has the ball last, throwing it into the end zone.
That might be fun. Why not defy gravity for a change?
LISTEN: Tim Benz and Jeremy Conn of 105.7 The Fan in Baltimore preview Steelers-Ravens.