Tim Benz: Going over on Pirates’ win total this year is a tough call — and that’s a good thing
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Projecting a win total for the 2024 Pittsburgh Pirates is difficult, because there is a significant amount of uncertainty over how good or bad this year’s version of the team will be.
Strangely, that’s … encouraging?
Actually, it really is.
After all, in recent seasons, so little has been expected of the Pirates, betting the over on their preseason win total has been a pretty easy decision because it’s hard to win fewer than the 65-70 games they are frequently projected to win.
Sure, on occasion, the Pirates have still managed to lose 100 games and stay under their total, but those were bad teams coming off bad years in a division with better teams at the top.
The 2024 Bucs appear to be an improving team coming off an improved year in a division that may be the weakest in MLB.
This year’s Pirates’ projected win total is 78.5, according to BetRivers.com. That’s not very lofty after gathering 76 wins in 2023, a 14-win improvement from the 62 they posted in 2022. And the ticket pays out at plus-100.
But as we chronicled a short time after the 2023 campaign ended, the Pirates are now in that 75-85 win netherworld between sub-mediocrity and wild-card contention.
Finding an additional 14 wins after only scrounging up 62 the previous year is one thing. As bad as some teams in Major League Baseball can be, losing 100 is still an outlier reserved for the worst handful of clubs per year. That’s to say nothing of how hard it is to lose 100 games in consecutive seasons as the Pirates did in both 2021 and 2022.
Replicating last year and finding an additional 14 more victories to reach the 90-win plateau seems foolhardy. However, that’s pretty much what the fabled 2013 team did en route to breaking the 20-year curse of sub .500 baseball that we all endured here in Pittsburgh. That edition of the franchise posted 94 victories after winning just 79 in 2012.
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Of course, the prospect exists that with questions about the starting rotation’s depth, the high strikeout rate of some important hitters in the lineup, Oneil Cruz’s ceiling as he comes back from injury, and some players being shifted around to play different positions, that this year’s Buccos may be like the 2000 team that sank back to 69 wins after showing some promise in 1999 by climbing to 78 victories from a 69-win plateau in ‘98.
I’m going in the other direction, though, on this year’s Pirates. I have some optimism surrounding this year’s team. In spring training, Cruz looked like he didn’t lose his stroke while recovering from injury. Once Paul Skenes comes up, the potential to have him, Jared Jones and Mitch Keller atop the rotation is intriguing to me.
I don’t share the mass wave of concerns about Henry Davis’ defense at catcher. If there are problems, manager Derek Shelton can stick him back in the outfield or at designated hitter. I bet his bat takes another stride or two this season.
If healthy, the bullpen looks like it could be a plus.
The biggest question to me is whether Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds can be healthy enough and consistent enough to take their decent 2023 numbers and make them All-Star worthy.
In my eyes, I see last year’s edition as being similar to the 2011 club. That inaugural team under Clint Hurdle got off to a good start and was above .500 at the All-Star break before fading to 72-90. The ‘23 group was one of the best teams in baseball through April, before fading in the summer months, then finding itself late to make that 14-game jump.
All without Cruz and Skenes and with Davis in his first MLB season playing out of position.
I expect these Pirates to be similar to the 2012 team. Maybe this is the year before the year. Put me down for 81 wins for the Pirates. Another season wandering the forest of mediocrity, but maybe with a compass to perhaps find playoff contention in 2025.