Tim Benz: Kenny Pickett’s injury provides cover more than it does strategy for Mike Tomlin
Share this post:
There is no tactical reason for Pittsburgh Steelers coach Mike Tomlin to announce his starting quarterback this early in advance of Sunday’s game against the Seattle Seahawks.
So he didn’t.
Not completely, anyway.
All Tomlin said of his QB situation Tuesday is that the team is adopting the same stance it had in the early stages of last week. The plan is, once again, to have Mason Rudolph be the starter, and they’ll reevaluate the situation based on how well Kenny Pickett’s injured ankle has healed after undergoing surgery earlier this month.
“As I said a week ago in this setting, Mason Rudolph was scheduled to be the quarterback for the week, and we’ll see where Kenny is. We have the same mentality as we start this week,” Tomlin said. “We have a great deal more comfort because of what we’ve seen in stadium from Mason Rudolph and that helps us, but we still really are in the same posture. He’s got the ball to start the week.”
There’s a strategic advantage to saying that. Just look at how the Bengals defended the Steelers with Rudolph at quarterback last week. They seemed to approach things as if Rudolph would run the offense the same way Pickett did the first time the teams faced each other in late November. Pickett attacked the middle of the field with tight end Pat Freiermuth, who ended up with a total of nine catches for 120 yards.
In Saturday’s rematch, though, Freiermuth wasn’t even targeted. Instead, Rudolph worked outside the numbers through the air to his wide receivers and hit a few deep shots to George Pickens to do most of the damage. Pickens wound up with 195 of the 290 passing yards Rudolph racked up.
“I’m sure they’re not shocked by some of the things that we did,” Tomlin said. “That’s divisional play, particularly the second time around. I referred to it last week as chess, not checkers. And that’s an example of it. It’d be naive to think that they weren’t going to do some schematic things differently to minimize Freiermuth based on what happened in the first game.”
It was exactly the “calculated risk taker” approach to QB play that Tomlin had used to describe Rudolph in advance of the Bengals game. So now the Seahawks may need to prepare for that from Rudolph as well as the risk-averse approach from Pickett.
But if we’re being honest, the Steelers offense isn’t exactly complex enough that the difference between Rudolph and Pickett isn’t going to be so severe that Seattle’s coaching staff is going to be losing sleep over facing one or the other — or simultaneously preparing for both.
More sports
• Winning out provides clearest, but not only, path for Steelers to reach the AFC playoffs
• Pectoral injury will keep Elandon Roberts from suiting up for Steelers against Seahawks
• Penguins forward Noel Acciari makes measurable impact on penalty kill
What Pickett’s injury really buys Tomlin is an excuse more so than an X-&-O advantage. It allows the optics to be that Pickett isn’t being temporarily benched for a guy who has been relegated to third string for the past two years. Instead, the public position is that ol’ Mason is just gonna do his darndest to keep the club afloat until “Kenny Franchise” is ready to get back in the saddle again.
This creates the perception that the Steelers are unwavering in their backing of last year’s first-round draft choice while making the proper and obvious choice of starting Rudolph in Seattle.
Because, let’s face it, Rudolph’s performance Saturday against the Bengals was as good of a game as we have seen from any Steelers quarterback all year — maybe even dating back to Roethlisberger’s last season.
As low of a bar as that is to clear, it’d be a tall task for Tomlin to sell the media and fans on a return to Pickett this week. And it’d be an even harder sell inside the locker room.
Especially for Pickens. The volatile, often pouting pass-catcher just had his best game of 2023. If Tomlin were to tell him they were placing Rudolph back on the bench again so quickly, he might check out five days before kickoff.
In fact, I’m struggling to come up with a worthy reason to start Pickett at all, even if he is 100% healthy. The plan can still be to have him be the quarterback for the team heading into 2024 without him playing Sunday. You can still go to him in relief this week or next if Rudolph falters.
However, for now, based on what we saw last week, and quite frankly, based on what we saw throughout this season with Pickett as the starter, it looks like Rudolph gives them the best chance to win in Seattle.
If I (and most of Pittsburgh) end up being wrong and Rudolph stinks, so what? Is it right to presume that Pickett was going to step in and light up the Seahawks? What recent evidence would support that theory?
Also, what’s the pressing need to see Pickett again during the last two games? To observe him play two more games in a system with two interim coordinators who aren’t going to be in those jobs next year?
After Rudolph played the way that he did, what would be the reason to go to Pickett if he does get to 100% health? I asked Tomlin that question Tuesday.
“It doesn’t serve us in any way to talk hypotheticals and things of that nature,” Tomlin said. “We focus on information that we have, and we plan day-by-day accordingly.”
Nor would it serve any purpose to send Rudolph to the bench for Pickett.
Start Rudolph. And if he bombs in Seattle (as the team has done seven out of eight times in its history), guess what?
You’d probably be in the same spot anyway if you started Pickett.
Listen: Tim Benz and Joe Rutter discuss the Steelers’ decision at quarterback heading out to Seattle, their thin playoff hopes and their injury issues on defense.