Tim Benz: Steelers on cusp of 'dream scenario' to wrap up 1st half of season

For NFL fans, it’s human nature. We all love to do the “Win, loss, win, win, loss, loss, win, loss, win” routine the moment our favorite team’s schedule is released.

That’s a fruitless endeavor. Given the NFL’s injury rate and massive allowance for change week-to-week, predicting games that are scheduled for January in mid-May is the height of folly.

Of course, that never stops us from doing it, though.

Even if you try to avoid going down that game-to-game rabbit hole as I do every year, there is something to be said for at least looking at the schedule in chunks and marking goals for where your team is likely to be.

Month to month. Quarter by quarter. Pre-bye. Post-bye. Home and road.

For instance, it’s good the 2023 Steelers hit a lot of those markers, getting to 6-3 with four AFC wins under their belt so they could absorb unforeseen losses to the likes of the Dorian Thompson-Robinson-led Cleveland Browns, the Arizona Cardinals, New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts over a one month span to place them on the brink of missing the playoffs at 7-7.

It’s especially understandable for Steelers fans to have done that this year given the cockamamie, backloaded, made-for-“Hard Knocks” schedule that has the club playing a Thursday night game, a Wednesday game on Christmas, four road games in five weeks and all six divisional contests over the last eight weeks of the season.

All of those games are slated against teams that were. 500 or better a year ago. Six of the eight games are against teams that made last year’s playoffs.

In other words, even back in May, we all knew that by the time the Steelers got to their Nov. 17 home game against the Baltimore Ravens, they better have six or seven wins under their belts.

Now, seven games into the season, the Steelers are on the cusp of making that happen. They are sitting at 5-2 with a home date looming against the 2-5 New York Giants on “Monday Night Football” next week.

Should the Steelers take care of business in that one, they’ll reach their midseason bye at 6-2 with nine games remaining.

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To the previous point of how fickle the NFL standings can be year to year, most Steelers fans looked at the ninth game against the Washington Commanders as the last test before that murderous run for the back half of the season.

However, with the Commanders off to a surprisingly good 5-2 start, maybe we should just draw the line at the bye and throw Washington into the gauntlet for the second half of the season.

If that’s the case, the Steelers have a golden opportunity this week. The Giants are plodding. They have lost three of their last four games.

The New York offense has managed just 10 total points over the past two contests. That unit posted a piddly 119 yards of production in a 28-3 home loss to Philadelphia on Sunday. Starting quarterback Daniel Jones got pulled for Drew Lock but is expected to be back under center at Acrisure Stadium on Monday night.

So the message is: Just take care of business. No slip-ups. No trap games. No overlooking the opposition. Beat the Giants by one point or by 100. Be 6-2 at the bye.

Then, even if they go 4-5 down the stretch, that’s a 10-7 record. If the four games they win are in the division (or at least the conference), then it’s probably good enough for a playoff berth like last year.

Going 5-4 at that point gets the team to 11-6. Almost assuredly, that’s good enough for a playoff spot and contention for the AFC North crown.

Go 6-3 to basically replicate the first half of the year and end up 12-5? In 2023, that would’ve been good for the AFC’s No. 2 seed.

Given their offensive line injuries and quarterback uncertainty, the Steelers have pretty much played themselves onto the outskirts of what can be called a dream scenario to wrap up the first half of the season. Now, if head coach Mike Tomlin’s players can avoid a nightmare Monday night, they can truly rest well over the bye week and prepare for a second half of the year the likes of which we have never seen.

LISTEN: Tim Benz and Joe Rutter wrap up Mike Tomlin’s press conference in their weekly Tuesday podcast.